Farmer sentiment in December 2025 weakened slightly as the Purdue University-CME Group Ag Economy Barometer Index fell three points to 136, reflecting modestly lower confidence in the agricultural future. The Future Expectations Index dropped four points to 140, while the Current Conditions Index remained steady at 128, indicating farmers’ views of present conditions held firm.
Concerns about U.S. soybean exports amid growing competition from Brazil contributed to the softer outlook. Thirteen percent of corn and soybean producers expected soybean exports to decline over the next five years, up from eight percent in November. Meanwhile, the share anticipating export growth fell from 47 percent to 39 percent. Eighty-four percent of producers expressed concern or strong concern about the competitiveness of U.S. soybeans against Brazil.
Despite these trade worries, farmers showed cautious optimism about their financial performance, with the farm financial performance index rising two points to 94. The farm capital investment index also increased slightly but remained low, with 60 percent of producers saying it was a bad time to make large investments.
Farmland value expectations remained positive, with the short-term index at 117 and the long-term index reaching a record high of 166.
Confidence in tariffs’ ability to strengthen agriculture declined, with 54 percent expecting positive effects, down from previous months, and uncertainty about tariff impacts more than doubling since spring.
Still, 75 percent of respondents said the U.S. agricultural economy is headed in the right direction, the highest level recorded since the question was introduced.
