The U.S. Department of Agriculture lowered its 2025/26 rice production forecast by 4.9 million hundredweight to 214.4 million, down 3.5 percent from the previous year, according to the June Rice Outlook report.
The reduction stems from a 70,000-acre decrease in projected harvested area to 2.768 million acres, primarily due to excessive spring rainfall in the Delta region. Expanded plantings in California, where favorable weather conditions and ample irrigation supplies prevail, only partially offset these losses.
"The 2025/26 long-grain crop is projected at 159.7 million cwt, 7.5 million below the previous forecast and 7 percent smaller than a year earlier," the report stated. "The medium- and short-grain crop is projected at 54.7 million cwt, 2.6 million above the previous forecast and 9 percent larger than a year earlier."
Despite the production decrease, total U.S. rice supply is forecast at a record 310.6 million cwt, supported by higher beginning stocks and increased imports. The import forecast was raised to a record 50.7 million cwt, up 4.5 percent from last year.
Crop conditions as of June 8 show 75 percent of U.S. rice rated good or excellent, compared with 82 percent a year earlier. Arkansas reported the largest decline, with 68 percent rated good or excellent versus 81 percent last year.
The USDA raised its 2025/26 season-average farm price forecast for long-grain rice by 50 cents to $12.50 per cwt and southern medium- and short-grain by 50 cents to $13.00. However, the California medium- and short-grain price forecast was lowered 50 cents to $19.50.
Globally, rice production is projected at a record 541.6 million tons, up 2.9 million from the previous forecast, with India accounting for most of the increase at a record 151.0 million tons.
The first USDA survey of actual U.S. rice plantings will be released on June 30 in the Acreage report.
