The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Oil Crops Outlook report highlights significant changes in the global soybean market for the 2024/25 marketing year. Global soybean stocks are forecast to decrease by 4.0 million metric tons to 124.3 million metric tons, primarily due to lower production in South America.
Key findings from the report include:
Global soybean production is lowered to 420.8 million metric tons, with decreased output in Argentina and Paraguay due to unfavorable weather conditions.
Brazil's soybean production remains unchanged at 169.0 million metric tons.
Global soybean crush is forecast higher at 349.9 million metric tons, driven by increased crushing in Brazil.
In the United States, the soybean supply and demand projections remain unchanged, with ending stocks for MY 2024/25 at 380.0 million bushels. However, the U.S. soybean season-average price received by farmers is forecast down to $10.10 per bushel.
U.S. soybean crush hit record highs in December 2024, with a daily crushing rate of 7.02 million bushels. Three regions - Iowa, North Central, and West Central - saw record-high monthly crush volumes.
The report also notes changes in the U.S. sunflowerseed market:
MY 2024/25 sunflowerseed crush is forecast down to 694 million pounds, the lowest since MY 2004/05.
Sunflowerseed exports are projected to decrease to 57 million pounds based on current trends.
Sunflowerseed oil imports are expected to remain high at 370 million pounds, mainly from Ukraine, the EU, and Argentina.
