U.S. grain transportation demand remained robust in the second quarter of 2025, driven by strong corn exports and improved rail service, according to the latest Grain Transportation Report released by the U.S. Department of Agriculture.
Corn exports for the 2024/25 marketing year are approaching record levels, while wheat exports have had a strong start to the 2025/26 marketing year. These factors, combined with generally good navigation conditions on the Mississippi River System and strong rail service, pushed barge movements and Class I rail grain carloads well above their prior three-year averages.
Grain disappearance, the difference between June and March stocks of corn, soybeans, and wheat, totaled 4.8 billion bushels, up 3% from average. Corn and wheat disappearances were above average by 5% and 4% respectively, while soybean disappearance was down 1%.
The western Corn Belt saw notable increases in grain disappearance. Nebraska was up 57 million bushels (13%), South Dakota up 58 million bushels (26%), and North Dakota up 64 million bushels (38%). Ohio experienced the largest drop, down 59 million bushels (23%).
Rail grain carloads in the second quarter were up 13% from the same period in 2024 and 11% above average. All U.S. Class I railroads, except for CSX Transportation, reported increased grain carloads. CSX's lower carloads likely reflected reduced grain stocks in the eastern Corn Belt, particularly in Ohio.
Rail service was generally strong across the Class I network, with one notable exception. Canadian Pacific Kansas City (CPKC) experienced service problems in areas of its legacy network following a computer system cutover in early May. In response to the Surface Transportation Board's request, CPKC submitted a service action plan on June 20 and continues to provide weekly progress updates.
Barge navigation conditions were relatively smooth in the second quarter, following first-quarter challenges from winter storms and high water. Downbound barged grain shipments through the Mississippi River System locks totaled 8.9 million tons, up 38% from last year and 11% above average.
Corn exports drove the increase, rising 27% above average and accounting for 72% of total barged grain volumes in the second quarter, up from 55% in the first quarter. However, soybean and wheat barged volumes were below the three-year average, down 12% and 31% respectively.
Ocean freight rates for shipping bulk grain remained mostly unchanged from the previous quarter but were down from both the second quarter of 2024 and the four-year average. The rate for shipping grain from the U.S. Gulf to Japan averaged $46.42 per metric ton, unchanged from the previous quarter but down 24% from a year ago and 28% below the prior four-year average.
Looking ahead to the 2025/26 marketing year, U.S. farmers are projected to harvest a record-high 398.9 million metric tons of corn, exceeding the previous record of 389.7 million metric tons harvested in 2023/24. Wheat exports for 2025/26 are projected at 23.1 million metric tons, up from the June forecast due to the strong pace of exports since the marketing year began in June.
Soybean demand is expected to shift, with domestic crushings projected to rise to 69.1 million metric tons to meet increased demand for soybean oil in biofuels production. However, soybean exports are projected to decrease to 47.5 million metric tons, down from 50.8 million metric tons in 2024/25, due to higher domestic demand and large global stocks.
