The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has revised its forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, predicting an increase in U.S. soybean ending stocks due to higher production, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) August report. The new soybean yield is forecasted at a record 53.2 bushels per acre, an increase from last month's projection of 52.0 bushels per acre. This boost in yield, combined with a 1.0 million acre increase in harvested area, raising it to 86.3 million acres, has led to an upward revision of the soybean production forecast to 4.6 billion bushels.
This increase in production is expected to elevate U.S. soybean exports by 25 million bushels, reaching 1.85 billion bushels for the year, while soybean crush estimates remain steady at 2.4 billion bushels. As a result, soybean ending stocks for the 2024/25 marketing year are now projected at 560 million bushels, marking a significant increase of 125 million bushels from last month's forecast.
The season-average soybean price is adjusted downward by $0.30 to $10.80 per bushel, reflecting the increased supply. Prices for soybean meal and oil are also set to change, with meal forecasted at $320.00 per short ton and oil at 42 cents per pound.
On the global front, the USDA's report also highlights an increase in worldwide oilseed production, now forecasted at 690.5 million metric tons for the 2024/25 marketing year. This is up by 4.5 million metric tons from last month’s forecast, driven by higher soybean and rapeseed production, which more than offsets decreases in other oilseeds like sunflowerseed, cottonseed, peanuts, and palm kernel.
Global oilseed trade is expected to rise by 1.1 million metric tons due to increased soybean and rapeseed exports. However, global oilseed crush is slightly reduced by 0.9 million metric tons due to a lower sunflowerseed crush, partially balanced by increased rapeseed and soybean crush.
These adjustments in the USDA's forecasts reflect changing agricultural conditions and market dynamics, influencing both domestic and global agricultural markets.
