Jun 11, 2021

WASDE Slashes Corn Ending Stocks

Increasing ethanol, export demand shrinks stocks to tightest level since 1995/96

source: Farm Progress

USDA fed corn bulls in the June 2021 World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report released Thursday, reports Farm Progress.

The World Agricultural Outlook Board (WOAB) slashed 2020/21 corn ending stocks by 150 million bushels – about 100 million more than analysts were expecting – on rising export and ethanol demand.

A reduced corn crop from Brazil also lent bullish strength to the corn complex while wheat futures were mixed following higher estimates for the 2021 winter wheat crop in the U.S.

Read the full report here.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for larger supplies, higher
domestic use, unchanged exports, and slightly lower stocks. Supplies are raised as
higher production more than offsets reduced beginning stocks. All wheat production is
projected at 1,898 million bushels, up 26 million from last month on increased Hard Red
Winter and Soft Red Winter production more than offsetting lower White Winter
production. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are lowered 4 million bushels to 770 million, down 10 percent from the revised 2020/21 ending stocks.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced beginning
and ending stocks. Beginning stocks are down 150 million bushels reflecting projected
increases for 2020/21 in corn used for ethanol and exports. Corn used for ethanol is
raised 75 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and
Co-Products Production
report, and weekly ethanol production and refiner and blender
net inputs data during May which indicate demand is almost back to levels seen prior to
COVID-19. Exports are raised 75 million bushels, based on export inspection data for
the month of May that implies continued robust global demand for U.S. corn, despite high prices. With no use changes for 2021/22, ending stocks are lowered 150 million bushels.

RICE: The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. rice this month is for smaller supplies, unchanged
domestic use and exports, and reduced ending stocks. All of the 2021/22 changes are
the result of 2020/21 trade revisions. The 2021/22 all rice beginning stocks are reduced
2.0 million cwt to 40.9 million, due to a combination of lower imports and higher exports
for 2020/21. All rice 2020/21 imports are lowered 1.0 million cwt to 34.7 million on
reduced volumes from Asia in recent months. All rice 2020/21 exports are raised 1.0
million cwt to 92.0 million, primarily on increased export sales and shipments to
Venezuela. Both of these trade changes are for long-grain.

OILSEEDS: This month’s U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2021/22 include
higher beginning and ending stocks. Higher beginning stocks reflect a lower crush
forecast for 2020/21. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is reduced 15 million bushels to 2.175
billion based on a lower forecast for soybean meal domestic disappearance and higher
soybean meal imports. Soybean oil exports for 2020/21 are reduced 400 million pounds
to 1.9 billion as high U.S. prices reduce competitiveness in the world market. Conversely,
soybean oil domestic disappearance is increased 225 million pounds, reflecting strong
consumption to date. With higher soybean beginning stocks and no use changes for
2021/22, ending stocks are projected at 155 million bushels, up 15 million from last
month.

Read the full June 2021 WASDE here.

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014