Oct 12, 2021

USDA Forced to Rebalance October WASDE

With estimates this month implying more grain than expected, there is little worry over too-low corn and soybean stocks

source: American Farm Bureau Federation (AFBF)

USDA’s WASDE 2021/22 marketing year domestic balance sheets for corn and soybeans reflected the big surprises in the September Grain Stocks quarterly report.

Major adjustments were made to reflect those survey results, particularly for soybeans as 2020/21 ending stocks rose sharply and demand factors were adjusted.

The impact to the new marketing year, however, when record soybean production is expected, means much higher than originally reported soybean supplies with little demand change, thus increasing stocks in both marketing years and slowing price increases.

For corn, the increase to old corn stocks will carry over into the new marketing year with increased corn yields. If demand for the new crop year remains stagnant and harvest is not interrupted by weather, prices could drop.

U.S. wheat is pegged to have its lowest supply since 2006 and ending stocks are being pushed to their lowest level in almost a decade, just as an overall reduction in global wheat stocks ripples through, which could help drive wheat prices even higher.

With estimates this month implying more grain than expected, except in wheat, there is little worry over too-low corn and soybean stocks. The next WASDE, published on Nov. 9, will likely reflect more robust yield estimates as harvest progresses.

Read the full Market Intel from the American Farm Bureau Federation here.

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Marketwatch: Oct, 26

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.1614
high: 5.1895
low: 5.139
close: 5.1704

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.8617
high: 11.9478
low: 11.8144
close: 11.943

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.5274
high: 7.5849
low: 7.5238
close: 7.5716

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0893
high: 7.1297
low: 7.0671
close: 7.1023