Russia’s recent military action in Ukraine significantly increased the uncertainty of agricultural supply and demand conditions in the region and globally.
The USDA April World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) represents an ongoing assessment of the short-term impacts as a result of this conflict.
WHEAT
The outlook for 2021/22 U.S. wheat this month is for stable supplies, lower domestic use, reduced exports and higher ending stocks.
Annual feed and residual use is lowered 10 million bushels to 100 million. The NASS Grain Stocks report, issued March 31, implied less feed and residual disappearance for the third quarter that was partially offset by an upward revision to this category in the second quarter.
Exports are lowered 15 million bushels to 785 million as the U.S. remains uncompetitive to most markets and exports would be the lowest since 2015/16. Projected 2021/22 ending stocks are raised 25 million bushels to 678 million but are still 20 percent lower than last year.
The projected season-average farm price (SAFP) is raised $0.10 per bushel to $7.60 on NASS prices reported to date and expectations for cash and futures prices for the remainder of 2021/22.
This would be the highest SAFP since 2012/13. The global wheat outlook for 2021/22 is for slightly higher supplies, increased consumption, lower trade, and reduced ending stocks. Supplies are increased by 0.7 million tons to 1,069.5 million on a combination of higher beginning stocks for Pakistan, Brazil, and Saudi Arabia and higher production for Pakistan and Argentina more than offsetting lower EU production.
Projected 2021/22 world consumption is raised 3.8 million tons to 791.1 million primarily on higher food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use for India.
Based on greater offtake from government stocks to food distribution programs, India’s FSI is raised 4.4 million tons to a record 100.9 million. Projected 2021/22 global trade is lowered 3.0 million tons to 200.1 million as lower exports by the EU, Ukraine, the United States, and Kazakhstan are not completely offset by higher exports by Russia, Brazil, and Argentina. EU exports are reduced 3.5 million tons to 34.0 million on a lower-than-expected pace.
Russia’s exports are raised 1.0 million tons to 33.0 million as it continues to export at competitive prices. Ukraine’s exports are lowered 1.0 million tons to 19.0 million as its Black Sea ports remain closed since the invasion by Russia in February.
The majority of Ukraine’s exports have already been shipped with limited additional amounts expected for the remainder of 2021/22. Projected 2021/22 world ending stocks are lowered 3.1 million tons to 278.4 million with India accounting for most of the reduction that is only partially offset by higher EU stocks.
Global stocks are projected at a five-year low.
COARSE GRAINS
This month’s 2021/22 U.S. corn outlook is for offsetting changes to feed and residual use and corn used for ethanol production, with unchanged ending stocks.
Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels to 5.625 billion based on indicated WASDE-623-2 disappearance during the December-February quarter.
Corn used to produce ethanol is raised 25 million bushels based on the most recent data from the Grain Crushings and CoProducts Production report, and the pace of weekly ethanol production during March as indicated by Energy Information Administration data.
With offsetting use changes, ending stocks are unchanged at 1.440 billion bushels.
The season-average farm price is raised 15 cents to $5.80 per bushel based on observed prices to date.
Global coarse grain production for 2021/22 is forecast 2.7 million tons higher to 1,501.6 million.
This month’s 2021/22 foreign coarse grain outlook is for higher production, reduced trade, and larger ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for Brazil, Indonesia, Pakistan, and the EU.
For Brazil, production is raised reflecting increased area; yield expectations are essentially unchanged this month as much of the second crop will enter the critical phase of development during April. Indonesia corn production is higher as greater area more than offsets a slight reduction to yield.
Corn production is raised for the EU, mostly reflecting increases for Germany, Romania, and the Czech Republic.
Foreign barley production is lower with reductions for the EU and Tunisia.
Major global trade changes include lower forecast corn exports for Ukraine, Serbia, and Paraguay, with increases for Brazil, Canada, and India.
Corn imports are lowered for China, Chile, and Bangladesh, but raised for Iran.
Foreign corn ending stocks are higher, mostly reflecting increases for Ukraine, Serbia, the EU, and Indonesia that are partly offset by a reduction for Canada.
Global corn ending stocks, at 305.5 million tons, are up 4.5 million from last month.
OILSEEDS
U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2021/22 include increased exports and seed use and lower ending stocks.
Soybean exports are raised 25 million bushels to WASDE-623-3 2.12 billion, partly offsetting lower exports from Brazil, Ukraine, and Russia.
Seed use is raised in line with record soybean plantings indicated in the March 31 Prospective Plantings report. Soybean ending stocks are projected at 260 million bushels, down 25 million from last month.
Soybean oil changes include increased exports and lower ending stocks. Despite relatively high soybean oil prices, export sales have been stronger than expected through March. A lower soybean meal export forecast is offset by slightly higher domestic disappearance.
The season-average soybean price forecast is unchanged this month at $13.25 per bushel. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $420 per short ton.
The soybean oil price is projected at 70.0 cents per pound, up 2 cents. The 2021/22 global soybean supply and demand forecasts include lower production, crush, trade, and ending stocks. Global soybean production is reduced 3.1 million tons to 350.7 million on lower crops for Brazil and Paraguay.
Soybean crush is lowered for Paraguay on lower supplies and reduced for China on the current pace to date.
China’s soybean imports are also lowered 3 million tons to 91 million. Lower soybean exports for Brazil, Paraguay, Russia, and Ukraine are partly offset by higher U.S. shipments.
Global soybean stocks are lowered 0.4 million tons to 89.6 million mainly on lower U.S. and Argentine stocks.
Another notable oilseed change this month includes lower sunflower seed crush for Ukraine, leading to lower meal and oil supplies for major markets like India, China, the EU, and Turkey.
Partly offsetting these declines are higher palm and rapeseed oil imports for China, higher soybean oil imports for India, higher soybean meal imports for Turkey, and higher soybean imports for the EU.
