The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest Outlook for U.S. Agricultural Trade report, released in February 2025, forecasts a modest increase in agricultural exports for fiscal year 2025, while imports are projected to rise significantly.
U.S. agricultural exports for FY 2025 are expected to reach $170.5 billion, up $500 million from the November forecast. This increase is primarily driven by higher grain and feed exports, which are projected at $37.7 billion, a $1.2 billion rise from the previous estimate.
Corn exports lead the grain sector's growth, with a $1.4 billion increase due to higher volumes and unit values. However, this positive trend is partially offset by lower projections for wheat, sorghum, and rice exports.
The oilseed sector faces challenges, with exports forecast at $32.4 billion, down $1.1 billion from the previous quarter. This decrease is mainly attributed to lower soybean unit values resulting from strong competition from South American producers.
Mexico is expected to remain the top market for U.S. agricultural exports, with a record forecast of $30.2 billion, up $300 million from the previous estimate. This increase is driven by strong sales of dairy, wheat, and other products during the first quarter.
However, exports to Canada are projected to decrease by $800 million to $28.4 billion due to weaker-than-expected shipments. China-bound exports are also cut by $1.3 billion to $22.0 billion, largely due to reduced prospects for U.S. soybeans, grains, and cotton.
On the import side, the USDA has revised its forecast upward to $219.5 billion, a $4.0 billion increase from the November projection. This rise is primarily attributed to higher import values of horticultural products, sugar, and tropical products.
The livestock, poultry, and dairy sector shows promise, with exports forecast up $400 million to $39.7 billion, driven by increases in beef and dairy products. Cotton exports, however, are projected to decrease by $200 million to $4.1 billion due to lower volumes.
