The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report, released on February 11, 2025, reveals significant shifts in the global wheat market, with implications for U.S. farmers and international trade.
Wheat outlook
In the United States, the 2024/25 wheat outlook shows a slight increase in domestic use, leading to lower ending stocks. Food use is projected to rise by 4 million bushels to 970 million, reflecting a 2% increase in wheat flour grind during the October-December quarter compared to the previous year. As a result, U.S. ending stocks are expected to decrease by 4 million bushels to 794 million, though still 14% above last year's levels. The season-average farm price remains unchanged at $5.55 per bushel.
On the global stage, the wheat outlook for 2024/25 indicates slightly larger supplies and higher consumption, but lower trade and ending stocks. World wheat supplies are up by 0.6 million tons to 1,061.3 million, primarily due to increased production in Kazakhstan and Argentina. Global consumption is set to rise by 1.8 million tons to 803.7 million, driven by higher feed and residual use in the EU, Kazakhstan, Thailand, and Ukraine.
A notable development is the significant reduction in China's wheat imports, decreasing by 2.5 million tons to 8.0 million. This marks China's lowest import level in five years, a stark contrast to its position as the leading world wheat importer last year with 13.6 million tons. The USDA cites a continued sluggish import pace as the reason for this decline.
World wheat trade is projected to decline by 3.0 million tons to 209.0 million, with export reductions for the EU, Mexico, Russia, Turkey, and Ukraine. These changes are expected to impact global wheat market dynamics and potentially influence prices in the coming months.
Coarse grains outlook
While U.S. corn supply and use projections remain unchanged, the global outlook shows notable shifts. Foreign corn production is forecast down, with Argentina and Brazil experiencing declines. Argentina's reduction reflects lower yields due to heat and dryness in January and early February, affecting early-planted corn in key central growing areas. Brazil's forecast is reduced due to slow second-crop planting progress in the Center-West, lowering yield prospects.
Global corn trade is also affected, with smaller projected exports for Brazil, Ukraine, and South Africa. On the import side, China's corn imports are cut, while Vietnam and Chile see increases. These changes contribute to a reduction in global corn ending stocks, now projected at 290.3 million tons, down 3.0 million from previous estimates.
Rice outlook
The U.S. rice outlook for 2024/25 shows slightly higher supplies, increased domestic use, lower exports, and higher ending stocks. Long-grain imports are higher due to an increase in Thai aromatics, while medium- and short-grain imports are lower on reduced shipments from China to Puerto Rico. Domestic use and residual is raised to a record 166.0 million cwt, while exports are reduced to 96.0 million cwt due to slow sales and shipments to Western Hemisphere markets.
U.S. rice ending stocks are projected to reach 47.0 million cwt, up 18% from last year and the highest in ten years. The all rice season-average farm price is lowered to $15.40 per cwt.
Globally, the rice outlook indicates fractionally lower supplies, slightly higher consumption and trade, and reduced ending stocks. World consumption is raised to 530.5 million tons, mainly due to higher imports by China. Global trade is projected to reach a record 58.3 million tons, with India's exports increased to a near-record 22.0 million tons.
Oilseeds outlook
U.S. soybean supply and use projections remain unchanged, but the season-average soybean price is projected lower at $10.10 per bushel. Globally, soybean production is reduced for Argentina and Paraguay due to persistent heat and dryness in January. Brazilian soybean production remains unchanged at 169.0 million tons, with beneficial weather in the Center-West boosting prospects, but drier conditions in the south affecting yields.
Global soybean crush is raised, driven by higher crush rates in Brazil due to favorable margins, strong biofuel demand, and robust soybean meal exports. However, Paraguay's soybean crush and meal exports are lowered due to reduced supplies. These factors contribute to a reduction in global soybean ending stocks, now forecast at 124.3 million tons, down 4.0 million primarily due to lower stocks in Argentina and Brazil.
