The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) reports that U.S. all-wheat exports will hit a four-year high in the 2024/25 marketing year, with a forecast of 825 million bushels. This marks a 17% increase from the previous year and is fueled by larger production volumes and more competitive pricing. The forecast shows the biggest rebound in Hard Red Winter (HRW) wheat exports, which are expected to rise by 86 million bushels from last year’s record low.
Despite this rebound, HRW exports are still projected to be the second-lowest on record at 220 million bushels. Other wheat classes, such as Hard Red Spring (HRS), White, and Durum, are also expected to see export increases due to larger production, while Soft Red Winter (SRW) wheat exports are forecast to decline as a result of a smaller crop. The overall export pace for U.S. wheat is significantly ahead of last year, with cumulative export sales up 28% by early October.
Domestic wheat production in 2024/25 is slightly lower than previously estimated, with the USDA adjusting its forecast down by 10 million bushels to 1.97 billion. However, this is still a 9% increase over the 2023/24 production levels. By class, HRW and White wheat production estimates were lowered, while HRS, Durum, and SRW saw upward revisions. Additionally, U.S. wheat stocks as of September 1, 2024, were estimated at 1.98 billion bushels, up 12% from the previous year.
Winter wheat planting is currently at 51% completion, just shy of the 5-year average. Drought remains a concern for roughly 47% of winter wheat production areas, which could impact crop establishment before winter dormancy.
Global rice trade expected to grow in 2025 amid India’s policy changes
On the global front, the USDA projects a significant increase in global rice trade for 2025, following India’s decision to lift its 14-month ban on non-basmati rice exports in September. The global rice export forecast is now expected to reach 56.3 million tons, a 4% increase from the previous year and the second-highest on record. India’s 2025 rice export forecast alone has been raised by 3 million tons to 21 million, as it resumes its position as a dominant exporter.
India’s decision to reduce tariffs on parboiled and brown rice exports from 20% to 10% is also contributing to increased global rice availability. Countries such as China, Nepal, and the Philippines are expected to raise their rice imports due to falling prices and greater supply.
Global rice production for 2024/25 is forecast at a record 530.4 million tons, with India accounting for much of this upward revision. Despite global rice consumption being projected at a record 528.1 million tons, global ending stocks are also forecast to increase to 182.2 million tons—the largest since 2021/22—mainly driven by India’s stockpile.
In the U.S., rice production for 2024/25 is forecast at 219.8 million hundredweight (cwt), slightly higher than the previous projection and up 1.5 million cwt from the previous year. Imports of rice are also projected at a record 46.5 million cwt, continuing a trend of increased U.S. reliance on foreign rice, particularly from Thailand and India.
Total U.S. rice exports are projected to grow to 101 million cwt, a 3% increase from last year. Stronger long-grain rice sales to Latin America, combined with increased U.S. market access and competitive prices, are expected to drive this growth. Additionally, U.S. rough rice exports are forecast to hit a record 44 million cwt, up nearly 6% from the previous year, due to stronger demand in Latin America and the Middle East.
In terms of pricing, the U.S. season-average farm price (SAFP) for all rice in 2024/25 remains unchanged at $15.60 per cwt, marking a $2.00 decline from the previous year as a result of larger supplies.
