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WASDE: USDA Lowers Soybean Projections

Soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 175M bushels

Soybean 1831703

The USDA has released its World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates for December 2020.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat this month is for slightly smaller supplies, unchanged domestic use, higher exports, and lower ending stocks. Supplies are reduced on lower imports, which are decreased 5 million bushels to 120 million on a slower-than-expected pace. Exports are raised 10 million bushels to 985 million as higher white wheat exports are partially offset by lower Hard Red Winter (HRW) exports. Sales and shipments of white wheat have been robust this marketing year to several East Asian countries. Conversely, HRW exports have slowed for the past several weeks. Projected 2020/21 ending stocks are reduced 15 million bushels to 862 million, down 16 percent from last year. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.70 per bushel. The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4/bushel. Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast virtually unchanged at 1,447.8 million tons. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for essentially unchanged production, greater trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. China’s sorghum and barley imports are projected higher, raising the country’s total coarse grain imports 4.8 million tons to 30.9 million. If realized, this would be record high and account for 14% of global coarse grain trade, slightly below the high seen during 2014/15.

RICE: The outlook for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month is for slightly lower supplies, unchanged domestic use, decreased exports, and higher ending stocks. Supplies are lowered, all on reduced medium- and short-grain imports. The 2020/21 global outlook is for slightly higher supplies, larger consumption, increased trade, and reduced stocks.

OILSEEDS: Total U.S. oilseed production for 2020/21 is projected at 123.7 million tons, down from last month on lower cottonseed production. Soybean crush for 2020/21 is increased 15 million bushels to 2.195 billion on strong crush margins and record early season crush. With exports unchanged, soybean ending stocks for 2020/21 are projected at 175 million bushels. If realized, ending stocks would be the lowest since 2013/14. The 2020/21 global oilseed supply and demand forecasts include lower production, higher exports, and lower ending stocks.

To review the entire December 2020 WASDE, click here.

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