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Black Swan Events Complicate Planting Puzzle

Extraordinary underproduction of corn, soybeans over past two seasons helped Chicago-traded futures reach multi-year highs

Young corn growing field planting VIA PIXABAY Feb 2021

It has been three years since U.S. farmers experienced a normal spring planting season, as extreme flooding in 2019 and a pandemic in 2020 derailed the initial plans, resulting in dramatically thinner supply levels than originally projected.

Reuters reports the extraordinary underproduction of corn and soybeans over the past two seasons has helped Chicago-traded futures reach multi-year highs, increasing projected profitability for the 2021 harvest. Corn, soybeans and competing crops are no longer “hot potatoes” in farmers’ eyes as they have been in recent, low-price seasons.

Analysts polled ahead of this week’s USDA numbers pegged corn and soybean acres at 92.9 million and 89.4 million, respectively. If realized, that would be the highest corn plus soy universe on record, topping 2017 by 2 million acres.

Read the full report at Reuters.

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