In its latest Grain Market Report, released on June 24, the International Grains Council (IGC) shows 2020-21 total grains production at 2.216 billion tonnes, 3 million tonnes lower than the previous month but higher than last year’s record crop of 2.186 million tonnes.
ICG cites a reduced outlook for Brazilian corn is behind a 3 million tonne m/m (month-on-month) cut for world 2020/21 total grains (wheat and coarse grains) production, to 2,216 million.
With total consumption fractionally higher m/m and opening stocks trimmed, the carryover at the end of 2020/21 is lowered by 5 million tonnes, mostly linked to larger than envisaged imports of corn, barley and sorghum by China, the forecast for global trade (Jul/Jun) is raised by 5 million tonnes, to 425 million.
For 2021/22, increased projections for corn (+7 million tonnes m/m, mainly China) oats and minor grains (millet/triticale) lift the global production forecast by 9 million m/m, to 2,301 million. Given the lower carry-in and higher use, stocks are 2 million tonnes bigger m/m, at 597 million. Larger predicted wheat imports in Near East Asia help to boost the total grains trade projection by 3 million tonnes m/m, to 418m.
On the basis of revised South American estimates, global soybean output in 2020/21 is slightly higher m/m, at 363 million tonnes, a 7% y/y increase.
The 2021/22 production outlook is maintained at a record of 383 million tonnes (+20m y/y). With a higher figure for carry-ins adding to supplies, however, stocks are predicted 2 million tonnes up m/m, at 53m (+11%), including an upgrade for the major exporters. The projection for trade is unchanged m/m, and is up 1% y/y at a new high.
Due to an upgraded estimate for India, world rice production in 2020/21 is lifted to a record of 504 million tonnes (+5m y/y), while total use is raised slightly to reflect increased utilization of state reserves in leading consumers.
The projection for 2021/22 production is marginally higher m/m and, with the increase matched by upgraded use, carryovers are unchanged m/m, at 171 million tonnes (+2 million). World trade is unchanged m/m, at 47 million tonnes, steady y/y.
Early June gains were reversed later in the month, led by softer row crop values, and the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) fell by 3% m/m.
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Download the report here.