Soybean Crush Expected to be Record Large
- The National Oilseed Processors Association (NOPA) Crush Report is due to be released today at 11am CT/12pm ET.
- The average estimate of March NOPA crush is 175.2 million bushels within a range of 165.0-179.6 million.
- This would compare to 170.0 million bushels last year in March and 166.3 million in February.
- The record for March is currently the 171.9 million bushels crushed in 2018.
- The average estimate for end of March soybean oil stocks is 2.067 billion pounds (1.966-2.142 billion range) and would be up solidly from the 1.922 billion in February and last year’s 1.761 billion.
- If stocks are above 2.023 billion pounds, it would be the highest since March 2013.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: March is the first month that the US began being significantly impacted by coronavirus. Though likely record high for March, crush rates in the US could be slowing as the board margin weakens. Downtimes are scheduled to begin this month, which could contribute to a monthly decline in crush for April. Oil stocks are a wild card and might be much larger than trade estimates.
Chinese Bean Imports for March Were Lowest Since 2013
- Imports for March were 4.3 million tonnes vs 4.9 million last year.
- That brings Q1 imports to 17.8 million tonnes vs 16.75 million last year.
- USDA raised China’s import projection 1 million tonnes to 89 million in last week’s WASDE report.
- Imports for the marketing year to date (Oct-Mar) of 41.8 million tonnes are up 7.0 million from last year’s 34.8 million tonnes.
- Monthly imports in the last half of the crop year will need to average approximately 7.9 million tonnes per month to reach the projection.
- Chinese customs data through March showed total imports of U.S. ag products in the first quarter of 2020 were $5.05 billion vs the roughly $36 billion sought for total imports in 2020 under the Phase One trade deal including about $3 billion worth of soybeans.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Though March and April soybean imports have been down, China has been very active purchasing relatively inexpensive supplies from Brazil. Unfortunately, this has left them behind pace on the Phase 1 trade deal purchases. While nothing specific has been announced, it appears a general sense exists that a hardline on the agreement will not be taken towards this year’s commitment given the coronavirus pandemic.
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