The U.S. Department of Agriculture's latest series of reports paint a complex picture of the global grain and oilseed markets, highlighting record-breaking soybean crush rates, strong corn exports, and shifting dynamics in wheat and feed grain sectors.
Summary:
- Global soybean crush forecast reaches record 352.8 million metric tons
- U.S. corn exports show strength, with January 2025 hitting 243 million bushels
- Wheat exports revised downward, while imports increase
- Feed grain markets see adjustments in sorghum, barley and oats
Soybeans crush global records
The USDA's Oil Crops Outlook report reveals a significant increase in the global soybean crush forecast for the 2024/25 marketing year, reaching a record-high 352.8 million metric tons. This 2.9 million metric ton increase is primarily driven by higher crush rates in China, Argentina, Thailand, Ukraine, and Pakistan, supported by growing demand for soybean meal and oil.
Global consumption forecasts for soybean meal and oil have risen by 1% and 2% respectively, with meal consumption expected to reach 270.4 million metric tons and oil consumption estimated at 67.6 million metric tons. Despite the increased demand, global soybean ending stocks are projected to decline but remain at record-high levels, as production estimates remain nearly unchanged.
U.S. soybean exports for September 2024-January 2025 totaled 1.3 billion bushels, up 18% from the same period last year. The USDA maintains its forecast of 1.8 billion bushels for the marketing year. Domestic crush rates continue to show strength, with the January 2025 crush totaling 212.6 million bushels, an increase of 18.3 million bushels from January 2024.
Corn exports surge amid stable production
The Feed Outlook report indicates that corn remains the dominant feed grain in the United States, with the 2024/25 marketing year outlook showing stability in production and demand. The corn supply estimate holds steady at 16,655.1 million bushels, with no changes to production figures.
U.S. corn exports have shown remarkable strength, with January 2025 exports reaching 243 million bushels, the highest for the 2024/25 marketing year thus far. The cumulative marketing year total of 970 million bushels represents a significant increase of nearly 240 million bushels compared to the same period last year.
Export prospects for U.S. corn remain favorable, with February corn inspections up 25% year-over-year and closely aligning with January 2025 figures. Total corn export commitments through February are 22% higher than the previous year, standing at 1,951 million bushels. These indicators suggest that corn exports are on track to meet the current forecast of 2.45 billion bushels, despite ongoing market uncertainties.
Wheat market adjustments and winter conditions
The Wheat Outlook report reveals significant adjustments in the U.S. wheat market for the 2024/25 marketing year. U.S. wheat exports have been revised downward by 15 million bushels to 835 million, reflecting changes in export sales and shipments across various wheat classes. Despite this reduction, exports are still projected to be 18% higher than the 52-year low observed in 2023/24.
Import forecasts have been raised by 10 million bushels to 140 million, driven by strong import activity for Hard Red Spring and Durum wheat. This increase is supported by official U.S. wheat import data, which shows a total of 104 million bushels imported from June 2024 to January 2025, an 8% rise from the previous marketing year.
Winter wheat conditions vary across key producing states, with Kansas and Oklahoma showing slight improvements, while Texas has experienced a notable decline. Approximately 24% of U.S. winter wheat production is estimated to be in areas affected by drought as of March 4, 2025, a slight increase from the previous month but higher than the same period last year.
Feed grain market dynamics
The feed grains sector is navigating significant market shifts. In the sorghum market, the 2024/25 export forecast has been slashed by 70 million bushels to 100 million, primarily due to reduced demand from China. This adjustment has led to an increase in domestic sorghum use, particularly for feed and residual purposes, as sorghum prices have become more competitive relative to corn.
Barley and oats markets have also seen notable changes. The barley food, seed, and industrial (FSI) use forecast has been lowered by 5 million bushels to 115 million bushels, reflecting a decline in U.S. beer production. Conversely, the oats market is experiencing tighter supplies, with a 5-million-bushel reduction in the import forecast and a corresponding decrease in feed and residual use.
Price adjustments across commodities
The USDA has made several adjustments to season-average price forecasts across various commodities. The soybean price forecast has been lowered to $9.95 per bushel, while meal and oil prices remain unchanged at $310.00 per short ton and 43 cents per pound, respectively.
For feed grains, corn prices remain at $4.35 per bushel, sorghum decreases to $4.15 per bushel, barley is lowered to $6.50 per bushel, and oats increase to $3.45 per bushel. The season-average farm price for all wheat has been adjusted downward by $0.05 to $5.50 per bushel.
