Drought conditions are intensifying across several key agricultural regions in the United States, as the latest U.S. Drought Monitor report reveals widespread soil moisture shortages and deteriorating pasture conditions. This week’s update, produced in partnership by the National Drought Mitigation Center, the U.S. Department of Agriculture, and the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, highlights the mounting challenges farmers and ranchers are facing due to prolonged dry weather, particularly in the Midwest, Northeast, and High Plains.
Nationwide, nearly half (45%) of the country’s rangeland and pastures are now rated in very poor to poor condition, a sharp increase from 19% in early summer, according to the USDA. This deterioration is causing concerns for livestock producers, especially in states like Texas, Ohio, and West Virginia, where drought conditions are having a severe impact on pasture quality and feed availability.
Midwest:
The Midwest, a major hub for corn and soybean production, saw significant relief from drought in Missouri and southern Illinois, thanks to recent heavy rains. However, areas farther north, particularly in Minnesota, are facing expanded drought conditions. Ohio and Kentucky continue to be among the hardest hit, with Ohio leading the region with 95% of topsoil moisture rated as very short to short. In Ohio, 93% of pastures are in very poor to poor condition, putting additional pressure on the state’s farmers as harvest season approaches.
High Plains:
In the High Plains, Kansas experienced some drought relief, but other states, including Wyoming and South Dakota, saw little to no improvement. On September 22, Wyoming reported 68% of its rangeland and pastures in very poor to poor condition, followed by South Dakota at 44%. This has raised concerns over feed availability and the health of cattle herds as ranchers prepare for winter.
Northeast:
Drought has taken a firm hold in the Northeast, with topsoil moisture depletion worsening in states like West Virginia, where topsoil moisture in agricultural areas was rated 100% very short to short as of September 22. Central Appalachia remains at the epicenter of the region’s agricultural crisis, causing stress on crops and leading to historically low water levels in some communities.
South:
The situation in the South remains a mixed bag. While Tennessee saw improvement in some areas, large sections of Texas and Oklahoma are suffering from continued dry conditions. In Texas, half of the rangeland and pastures were rated very poor to poor, and the state led the nation with 48% of its cotton crop in very poor to poor condition—well above the national average of 33%. This has raised concerns over yield quality and the economic outlook for cotton farmers.
Hurricane Helene threatens southeastern crops:
Adding to the challenges, Hurricane Helene is forecast to strike Florida’s Big Bend region late Thursday, potentially impacting timber and agricultural crops such as cotton and pecans in north-central Florida and southwestern Georgia. With the hurricane expected to bring hurricane-force winds and up to 12 inches of rain, there is a high risk of flooding and crop damage. The storm's path is eerily similar to last month’s Hurricane Idalia, which caused extensive damage in the same region.
Outlook:
The 6- to 10-day outlook from the National Weather Service suggests continued dry conditions across much of the U.S., with only a few areas, such as peninsular Florida and the Northeast, expected to see wetter-than-normal weather. As farmers in drought-stricken areas continue to contend with water shortages, the establishment of winter grains and cover crops is becoming increasingly difficult, threatening future crop yields.
The expanding drought and poor pasture conditions are raising alarm across the agricultural sector. The situation is creating a “perfect storm” of challenges for livestock producers and crop farmers alike, with feed prices expected to rise and yield quality potentially declining. With key agricultural regions in the Midwest, High Plains, and South under significant drought stress, the economic ripple effects could extend well into the 2025 planting season.
Farmers, ranchers, and agricultural stakeholders will be closely monitoring weather patterns and soil moisture levels in the coming weeks as they assess options to mitigate the damage and plan for the next growing season.
