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USDA cuts grain export numbers in August WASDE

Soybean exports down 25 million bushels on lower supplies and crush demand.

Soybean Field Jcesar2015 Pixabay com
jcesar2015 |

On August 11, USDA released its August World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) where the agency cut export numbers for corn, soybeans and wheat.

WHEAT: The outlook for 2023/24 U.S. wheat this month is for decreased supplies, slightly lower domestic use, reduced exports, and higher stocks.

Supplies are reduced as wheat production is forecast at 1,734 million bushels, down 5 million from last month as lower Other Spring and White wheat production is partially offset by increases for Hard Red Winter (HRW), Soft Red Winter, and Durum. The all wheat yield is 45.8 bushels/acre, down 0.3 bushels from last month.

Domestic use is lowered 3 million bushels, all on food use, based on the NASS Flour Millings Products report, issued August 1.

Wheat exports are reduced 25 million bushels to 700 million on the weak sales and shipment pace to date for HRW, where all the reduction is made.

Projected 2023/24 ending stocks are raised 23 million bushels to 615 million but remain well below the 5-year average of 846 million.

  • The 2023/24 season-average farm price is unchanged at $7.50/bushel.

The global wheat outlook for 2023/24 is for reduced supplies, lower consumption, decreased trade, and lower stocks. Supplies are projected to decline 4.3 million tons to 1,061.7 million as reduced production for the EU, China, and Canada is only partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Kazakhstan. The EU is lowered 3.0 million tons to 135.0 million, primarily due to reductions for Spain, Lithuania, and Romania. China is reduced 3.0 million tons to 137.0 million, based on the National Bureau of Statistics summer grain production forecast. Canada is decreased 2.0 million tons to 33.0 million on worsening drought conditions in the Prairie Provinces. Ukraine is increased 3.5 million tons to 21.0 million on higher area harvested and yields with the forecast yield the second highest on record. Kazakhstan is raised 1.0 million tons to 15.0 million on higher area reported by Kazakhstan’s Bureau of National Statistics.

Global consumption is reduced 3.4 million tons to 796.1 million, mainly on lower feed and residual use for the EU and reduced food, seed, and industrial use by China. World trade is decreased 2.2 million tons to 209.4 million on reduced exports by Canada and the United States. Despite higher production, Ukraine’s exports are unchanged at 10.5 million tons with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative. Projected 2023/24 global ending stocks are lowered 0.9 million tons to 265.6 million, the lowest since 2015/16.

COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2023/24 U.S. corn outlook is for reduced supplies, lower domestic use, smaller exports, and tighter ending stocks.

Projected beginning stocks for 2023/24 are 55 million bushels higher based on a lower use forecast for 2022/23, reflecting reductions in corn used for exports, glucose and dextrose, and starch.

Corn production for 2023/24 is forecast at 15.1 billion bushels, down 209 million from the July projection and if realized, would be the second highest on record behind 2016/17.

The season’s first survey-based corn yield forecast, at 175.1 bushels/ acre, is 2.4 bushels lower than last month’s projection.

The latest Crop Production report indicates that among the major producing states, yields are forecast above a year ago in Indiana, Iowa, Nebraska, Ohio, and South Dakota. Yields in Illinois, Minnesota, and Missouri are forecast below a year ago.

Total U.S. corn use for 2023/24 is cut 95 million bushels to 14.4 billion. Feed and residual use is lowered 25 million bushels based on a smaller crop. Corn used for glucose and dextrose and starch is projected lower based on observed use during 2022/23.

Exports for 2023/24 are cut 50 million bushels to 2.1 billion. With supply declining more than use, ending stocks are lowered 60 million bushels to 2.2 billion.

  • The season-average corn price received by producers is raised 10 cents to $4.90/bushel.

This month’s 2023/24 foreign coarse grain outlook is for lower production, reduced trade, and smaller ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is down, with cuts to the EU, China, and Russia partially offset by increases for Ukraine and Canada. EU corn production is sharply lower with reductions to both area and yield. The largest declines are for Hungary, Romania, Germany, and Italy. China corn production is reduced as excessive wetness in key producing provinces in Northeast China and on the North China Plain reduces yield prospects. Corn production for Ukraine is higher with increases to both area and yield as timely rainfall and a lack of extreme heat during July boost yield expectations. Russia corn production is reduced based on lower area. Foreign barley production is cut on declines for the EU, Canada, and Russia. Major global coarse grain trade changes for 2023/24 include lower corn exports for the U.S.  and the EU. Ukraine corn exports are unchanged with the expiration of the Black Sea Grain Initiative.

Corn imports are raised for Canada and Zimbabwe but lowered for Egypt, Vietnam and Algeria. Barley exports are cut for Canada and the EU. Barley imports are raised for the EU but lowered for China and Iran. Foreign corn ending stocks are down 1.6 million tons to 255.1 million, reflecting declines for China, Zambia, and Russia that are partly offset by increases for Ukraine and South Africa.

OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use changes for 2023/24 include higher beginning stocks and lower production and exports.

Beginning stocks are raised on higher 2022/23 imports. Soybean production for 2023/24 is forecast at 4.2 billion bushels, down 95 million on lower yields. Harvested area is forecast at 82.7 million acres, unchanged from July.

The first survey-based soybean yield forecast of 50.9 bushels/acre is reduced 1.1 bushels from last month. Soybean supplies for 2023/24 are projected at 4.5 billion bushels, down 2 percent from last year.

With soybean exports down 25 million bushels on lower supplies and crush unchanged, ending stocks are forecast at 245 million bushels, down 55 million from last month.

  • The U.S. season-average soybean price for 2023/24 is forecast at $12.70/bushel, up $0.30 from last month.
  • The soybean meal price is forecast at $380/short ton, up 5 dollars.
  • The soybean oil price forecast is 62 cents/pound, up 2 cents.

The 2023/24 foreign oilseed supply and demand forecast includes lower exports, reduced crush, and higher ending stocks. Foreign oilseed production is nearly unchanged at 539.7 million tons as higher sunflowerseed and peanut production are mostly offset by lower rapeseed output. Ukraine and Russia sunflowerseed production is forecast higher as timely rain in July improved yield potential. Conversely, Canada’s canola crop is lowered 1.3 million tons to 19.0 million as drought intensified in the southwestern Prairies during July. EU sunflowerseed production is also reduced on lower production for Romania, Spain, and France.

Global soybean exports are reduced 0.5 million tons to 168.8 million on lower U.S. exports. Soybean crush and imports are reduced for Bangladesh, Egypt, and Pakistan, in line with downward revisions in the prior marketing year. Global soybean ending stocks are reduced 1.6 million tons to 119.4 million mainly on lower U.S. stocks.

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