The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its October 2024 Feed Outlook report, forecasting a strong year for U.S. corn and sorghum exports, despite global challenges in coarse grain production. The report highlights increased U.S. corn production and exports while noting reductions in global coarse grain supplies due to lower outputs in key regions like Ukraine, Russia, and Brazil.
US corn exports climb as global trade declines
U.S. corn exports are forecast to rise by 25 million bushels in 2024/25, reaching 2.325 billion bushels. This increase comes despite reduced corn production in major exporting countries, such as Brazil and Argentina, whose export projections have been lowered by 2.5 million and 1.5 million tons, respectively, for the 2023/24 marketing year. Argentina's corn beginning stocks are also up by 2.6 million tons, while Brazil's stocks rose by 1.0 million tons.
Meanwhile, China and Iran are expected to reduce their corn imports in 2024/25. Deflationary pressures in China and a decrease in Russian and Brazilian exports to both countries have prompted these revisions. Conversely, Egypt’s corn imports are forecast to rise due to lower domestic production.
The overall decline in global coarse grain trade is driven primarily by a reduction in corn exports, which are projected 2.3 million tons lower for the 2024/25 international trade year. Despite these global reductions, U.S. corn exports have remained competitive, particularly with increased demand from Mexico, which is recovering from a drought-affected crop.
Sorghum and oat production surge
The USDA also reported a significant boost in U.S. sorghum production, with supplies forecast to reach 335 million bushels in 2024/25. This increase is fueled by higher yields and beginning stocks. As a result, U.S. sorghum exports are projected to rise, driven by demand from China, which has increased its sorghum import forecast by 0.5 million tons due to larger supplies in Argentina.
In addition to strong sorghum performance, U.S. oat production has reached a record 67.8 million bushels, marking a 24% increase over the five-year average. North Dakota and Minnesota lead the way, producing 13.2 million and 12.3 million bushels, respectively. Higher national yields and an increase in harvested area have contributed to this surge in production, with the harvested-to-planted ratio of oats rising to 40%, up 8 percentage points from last year.
Barley production drops amid lower acreage
In contrast, U.S. barley production is forecast to decline due to reduced harvested acreage, particularly in Montana and North Dakota, where harvested areas have been cut significantly. Despite stronger yields, total U.S. barley production is estimated at 144 million bushels, down 23% from the previous year.
Globally, barley trade is expected to fall, with lower exports from Russia, the European Union, and the United Kingdom due to poor harvests. However, Argentina’s barley production has been revised upward due to favorable weather, raising the country’s export prospects.
Global coarse grains outlook
Global coarse grain production for 2024/25 is forecast to decline by 2.3 million tons, with reductions in corn, barley, and rye outputs. Harvests in the Black Sea region, particularly in Russia and Ukraine, have been affected by summer droughts, leading to lowered production forecasts. Barley production in the European Union and the United Kingdom is also projected to fall, contributing to a decline in global trade.
Despite these challenges, foreign beginning stocks of corn and barley are projected to increase slightly, with Argentina, Brazil, and Mexico holding larger corn stocks. This increase in beginning stocks partially offsets production losses, keeping overall global coarse grain ending stocks relatively stable, although they are forecast to be 1.5 million tons lower than previously anticipated.
Domestic outlook: US ending stocks decline
In the U.S., corn-ending stocks for 2024/25 are forecast to fall to 2.0 billion bushels due to lower supplies and increased export demand. The USDA maintained its projection for the U.S. corn season-average price at $4.10 per bushel, reflecting stable pricing despite global market fluctuations.
Feed and residual use for U.S. corn is also up, supported by strong domestic demand. U.S. ethanol production has remained elevated, with exports contributing to increased corn use for ethanol production. The report noted that while Brazil has reduced its reliance on U.S. ethanol, other major trade partners such as Canada, the United Kingdom, India, and Colombia have stepped in to fill the gap.
Looking ahead
As the 2024/25 marketing year progresses, U.S. coarse grain exports are expected to remain robust, with corn and sorghum leading the way. However, global production challenges, particularly in key exporting regions, will likely influence market dynamics and trade flows. The USDA will continue to monitor these developments, providing updated projections in future reports.
