The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) reports in its Cereals Supply and Demand Brief that global wheat production in 2021 is likely to increase and hit a new record of 780 million tonnes.
In its preliminary forecast, FAO expects a rebound in production in the European Union to more than offset weather-impacted production prospects for output in the Russian Federation.
Maize production in South Africa is expected to reach near-record levels in 2021, while outputs in South America are forecast at well above-average levels. The crop is yet to be planted in countries north of the equator.
The brief offers more details and updated assessments. Highlights include a new and higher estimate for world cereal production in 2020, now seen at 2 761 million tonnes, a 1.9% increase from the previous year, lifted by higher-than-expected outturns reported for maize in West Africa, for rice in India, and wheat harvests in the European Union, Kazakhstan and the Russian Federation.
FAO's new projections for 2020/21 include a 2.0% annual increase in global cereal utilization to 2.766 million tonnes and 5.5% growth in world trade in cereals to 464 million tonnes.
Global cereal stocks are now forecast to end 2021 at 811 million tonnes, 0.9% below their opening levels, pushing down the stock-to-use ratio to 28.6%. World rice and wheat stocks are expected to increase, while those of coarse grains to decline.