Reuters October WASDE Analyst Poll: Falling Corn & Soy Stocks
On Friday, Oct. 4, Thomson Reuters released their analysts estimates for the USDA’s October WASDE report to be released on Thursday, Oct. 10.
Corn: Analysts see the yield declining by .7 BPA from the September report to 167.5 BPA. Harvested Acres decline by 400K acres to 81.6 MA. Ending Stocks: Fall by 400 MBU to 1.789 BBU.
Soybeans: Analysts see the yield falling by .6 BPA from the September report to 47.3 BPA. Harvested Acres decline by 161K acres to 75.5MA. Ending Stocks: Fall by 119 MBU to 640 MBU
Wheat: Ending stocks UNCH @ 1.015 BBU
FBN’s Take On What It Means: The Reuters analyst estimates showing declining corn and soybean yields are a surprise to FBN as our model runs throughout September have indicated stabilizing and improving yield objectives. But all eyes will be directed to the ending stocks numbers for the corn and soybean balance sheets. We believe that the declining corn and soybean ending stocks numbers for the 19/20 marketing year can be supportive of both cash and futures prices.
EU 2019/20 Rapeseed Acres Set for Another Decline
European agri-consultant, Strategie Grains, is predicting another decline in the planted rape seed crop for the 19/20 marketing year.
Rapeseed is the EU's primary crop for vegetable oil and biodiesel.
Strategie Grains estimated EU rapeseed plantings for the 19/20 crop year at 5.94 million hectares (ha), 8% below the 2015-2019 average but still 7% above the 5.55 million harvested this year.
Exceptionally dry weather at planting time in many key rapeseed producing countries like Germany and France, pest issues and dry weather at the end of the cycle cut the 2018/19 rapeseed harvest to a 13-year low.
Strategie Grains is predicting a 2019/20 yield of 3.25 tonnes per hectares (t/ha), and production of 19.3 million tonnes in 2020. This estimate compares to 16.9 million tonnes harvested in 2019 and 20 million tonnes in 2018.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: At FBN, we believe that declining EU rapeseed planted acres can be supportive for US soybean exports. Soybean exports to the EU were an important destination for the US during the 18/19 marketing year. US soybean exports to the EU could be further enhanced during the 19/20 marketing year if Argentina imposes capital restrictions and limits agricultural exports after the Presidential elections on October 27.
The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)