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Ag Markets Start Firm Despite Strong Planting Progress

Corn, soybean and cotton planting are ahead of average pace

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Growing Corn

Crop Progress Report

  • Corn plantings shot higher and are ahead of the average pace (see Chart of the Day below).
  • Soybean plantings also jumped to 8% complete, up from 2% last week, 2% last year, and ahead of the average at 4%.
  • 14% of the spring wheat crop was in the ground. That was up from 7% last week and 11% last year, but was below the 29% average.
  • Cotton plantings came in at 13% complete. That was up only marginally from last week at 11%, and is slightly ahead of last year and the average.
  • Winter wheat conditions declined in all three classes to an overall 54% good/excellent vs 57% last week and 64% last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn, soybean and cotton planting are ahead of their average pace. Producers appear to be continuing the recent trend of getting some early beans planted, with solid starts in Iowa, Illinois and Indiana. While spring wheat planting is lagging behind the average, it is still ahead of the past two years. The weather forecast remains conducive to planting, and this is likely to weigh on prices until/unless some risk premium is added into the growing seas

US Weekly Grain Exports Firm

  • Corn exports, for the week ended 4/23/20, were 42.4 million bushels, up from 27.5 million bushels last week.
  • Soybean exports were slightly better than last week at 20.4 million bushels vs 20.3 million bushels.
  • Wheat exports last week were 18.4 million bushels, just below the 18.6 million the previous week.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Exports for the week were solidly within expectations. Corn loadings rebounded to the pace needed to meet the USDA’s current yearly projection of 1.725 billion bushels. Unfortunately, the same can not be said for beans and wheat. Beans need to average a little over 26 million bushels/week to meet the projected 1.775 billion bushels, and it is becoming more apparent that China will need to buy more to get there. Wheat exports over the last five weeks of the marketing year are going to need to finish strong to reach the 985 million bushels projected.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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