The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) has projected an increase in U.S. feed grain supplies for the 2024/25 marketing year despite a forecasted decline in production due to reduced acreage. This is driven primarily by a record production year in 2023/24 that has bolstered corn stocks.
Key points:
- Production and supply: U.S. feed grain production is expected to be lower due to a reduction in corn-planted acreage, projected at 90 million acres, down 4.6 million from the previous year. However, the overall feed grain supply is expected to be higher, with ending stocks projected at 56.4 million metric tons, up 2.3 million metric tons from 2023/24.
- Corn production: The U.S. corn crop is forecasted to be 14,860 million bushels, down 482 million from the previous year. Corn yield is expected to remain steady at 181 bushels per acre. The beginning stocks for 2024/25 are estimated to be significantly higher, providing a strong start for the year.
- Exports and usage: Corn exports for 2023/24 are estimated at 2,150 million bushels, boosted by strong demand, particularly from Mexico, which has seen a poor harvest. For 2024/25, the U.S. is expected to benefit from lower export volumes from competitors like Argentina and Brazil. Domestic corn use for ethanol production remains strong, with an estimated use of 5,450 million bushels for both 2023/24 and 2024/25.
- Global context: Global coarse grain production is projected to reach 1,512.6 million tons, with increased production in Brazil and the European Union offsetting the decline in the U.S. Growth in global corn feed use is expected to surpass the reduction in food, seed, and industrial use.
- Price projections: The 2024/25 season-average farm price for corn is projected to be $4.40 per bushel, down 25 cents from 2023/24, reflecting a larger stocks-to-use ratio of 14.2 percent compared to the current year's 13.7 percent.
The USDA’s next detailed report on these projections will be released on June 14, 2024.
