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Corn Market Blindsided by Large U.S. Supply Revision

Sept. 1 supplies of U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat all came in below trade expectations

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The latest quarterly grain stock report from the U.S. government jolted the Chicago futures market with a surprise that virtually nobody saw coming.

According to a report at Reuters, Sept. 1 supplies of U.S. corn, soybeans and wheat all came in below trade expectations when the U.S. Department of Agriculture released the data, but the corn number stood out the most since it included a large, unprecedented adjustment to prior stocks.

USDA’s National Agricultural Statistics Service (NASS) placed Sept. 1 corn stocks at 1.995 billion bushels, some 11% below pre-report estimates.

This was analysts’ second largest over-guess of Sept. 1 corn supply since at least 2005, behind last year’s high-side miss.

According to the latest USDA Grain Stocks report released Wednesday:

  • Corn Stocks Down 10% from September 2019
  • Soybean Stocks Down 42%
  • All Wheat Stocks Down 8%

See the full USDA Grain Stocks report here.

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