Sep 27, 2022

La Niña to Impact Global Agriculture for 3rd Straight Winter

Rare occurrence weather pattern has only happened twice in the past 70 years

Looks like La Niña is planning to hang around this winter ... again.

La Niña weather conditions, the cool phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) climate pattern, is heading into its third consecutive winter with a 91% chance of La Niña through September-November and an 80% chance through the early winter (November-January), says Climate.gov. This rare occurrence has only happened twice in the past 70 years.

What does this mean for global commodity production?

Gro Intelligence says La Niña conditions for a third year in a row could have far-reaching effects on global agriculture by triggering large shifts in weather.

La Niña tends to create drought and dry conditions in many parts of the world, including Brazil, Argentina and the U.S., while bringing additional precipitation to other areas, such as Australia.

  • Argentina impacts could include reduced wheat acreage planted, hindering the crop's yield development; La Niña previously caused substantial soybean losses in Argentina during the 2020/21 and 2021/22 seasons
  • Brazil corn and soybeans could decrease; Brazil's southern states experienced severe drought this past year
  • U.S. hard red winter wheat also suffered from dry conditions brought on by La Niña
  • Australia is looking at its third year of strong wheat production in 2022 as good weather boosts planting across its grain belt

When will La Niña transition to neutral?

La Niña’s characteristic tropical atmospheric response — more rain and clouds over Indonesia, less over the central Pacific, and stronger-than-average winds both aloft and near the surface — was active in August, notes Climate.gov. Taken together, the oceanic and atmospheric conditions tell us that La Niña is solidly in place.

There is a lot of uncertainty about how long this La Niña will last and when we will see a transition to neutral conditions.

Current forecaster consensus gives La Niña the edge through January-March (54%), with a 56% chance of neutral for the February-April period.

Why should I care?

La Niña and El Niño affect global atmospheric circulation patterns in somewhat usual patterns, altering jet streams and storm tracks around the world and influencing temperature, rain/snow and tropical cyclone seasons -- which helps us predict climate patterns to come.

Here are some examples of what La Niña likes to bring to the U.S.:

La Niña year does not guarantee a bad year with regards to corn and soybean yields, but it also means not a ‘really good year.’

Globally, La Niña can reduce crop yields, which given the challenges, disruptions and turmoil in the past year is yet another threat to our global food supply and system.

Additional reading:

La Niña is Here to Stay Through Summer

How Will La Niña Impact 2022 Agricultural Production?

Lisa Cleaver

Sponsored Items

Recently Added to Buyer's Guide

AgraStrip Pro GMO Rapid Test Kits

  • Independent, simultaneous testing of up to four samples
  • Limits of detection as low as 0.1%

Granulex 5

  • Up to 30% reduction in energy consumption per ton
  • Connects to Bühler Insights to enable 24/7/365 data-based decision making

Automated Extrusion Control Systems

  • Designed for increased efficiency, higher production rates, reduced waste
  • Consistent results and quality across production lines, shifts and plants

Catwalks & Towers

  • Includes handrail trusses, outrigger trusses, and walk-thru truss style catwalks with standard spans over 200 feet
  • Welded sections and panels allow for easy field assembly while maximizing freight

Market+ Merchandise

  • Bid Management to upload or enter bids, easily adjust basis and other details, and publish to originators and farmers
  • Competitive insights to see how bids compare to other nearby bids

Hydro-Mix XT-FS Sensor

  • Designed to measure moisture in flowing material where there is a food safety requirement
  • Installed in ducting, conveying and mixing systems in process control environments


Marketwatch: Dec, 06

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 6.5328
high: 6.55
low: 6.4408
close: 6.4673

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 14.2059
high: 14.2809
low: 14.1255
close: 14.1516

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.3708
high: 8.3933
low: 8.0459
close: 8.0561

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 6.9245
high: 6.947
low: 6.6307
close: 6.6779