Dec 04, 2020

Export Sales Mostly As Expected

Ag markets stall seeking confirmation of new demand

Export Sales Announcement

  • Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 182,020 metric tons of corn for delivery to Mexico during the 2020/2021 marketing year.

Export Sales Mostly As Expected

  • Corn sales last week were 54 million bushels, well below the previous week's 83.6 million, but still well above last year's 21.5 million bushels.
  • There were new corn sales to China of 6.1 million bushels bringing their total purchases to 441 million (11.2 million tonnes).
  • Mexico was the heaviest corn buyer, taking 25.1 million bushels, bringing their total purchases to 334.6 million versus 271.6 million last year.
  • Export sales of soybeans were a new marketing year low of 15 million bushels, at the very low end of market expectations.
  • Chinese activity included 4.9 million bushels of cancellations and 14.5 million of previously-reported “unknown” sales being switched to China.
  • Wheat sales last week of 16.4 million bushels were within market expectations, but slightly below average sales over the previous four weeks.
  • No new wheat sales to China were reported for the week.
  • Upland cotton sales of 277,900 running bales were down 22% from the previous week, but up 33% from the four week average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Bean export sales were disappointing even with reduced expectations. The weekly data confirmed some sales were washed out as reported last week. However, crush margins in China have improved a bit, so the market will continue looking for any USDA announcements of further Chinese purchases following reports of inquiries for US supplies.


South America Crop Conditions

  • Brazilian soybean planting is 83% complete, in line with last year and behind the average of 85%.
  • First crop corn planting was 94% complete, remaining ahead of last year and slightly ahead of 93% average.
  • Datagro increased the forecast of Brazil’s soybean crop to 135 million tonnes from 134 million previously versus the USDA at 133 million.
  • The analyst reduced the corn crop 114 million tonnes from 114.4 million, but is solidly above the USDA at 110 million.
  • Argentina corn planting is 35% complete, up from 32% last week, but still behind 49% last year and the average of 44%.
  • The early corn crop is rated 34% good to excellent versus 36% last week.
  • Soybean planting increased 9% last week to 48.2% complete.
  • Wheat in Argentina is 40% harvested, with the crop projection remaining unchanged at 16.8 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Recent rains and additional showers expected later this month in South America have supported soy and corn planting. There is still concern about late planting as some areas in Brazil needed to be replanted and the weather pattern has been less than ideal. It is still too early to significantly change yield estimates, but the risk of adverse weather should continue to be supportive.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014