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Final Crop Progress Report

Monday marked the last weekly Crop Progress report for the 2020 season

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Wheat field

Final Crop Progress Report

  • Yesterday marked the last weekly Crop Progress report for the 2020 season.
  • The first weekly report for 2021 will be released on April 5, 2021.
  • Individual states will release monthly reports in the interim.
  • Winter wheat conditions rebounded 3% higher to 46% good to excellent versus 52% last year.
  • The average trade expectations were for conditions to be unchanged compared to last week.
  • Emergence was reported at 92%, which is slightly ahead of last year at 89%, and on pace with the average of 91%.
  • Cotton harvest advanced to 84% complete from 77% last week and remains ahead of the 79% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Cotton harvest continues on pace as progress in TX more than makes up for delays in VA and NC. For wheat, recent rains in the southern Plains were beneficial for HRW and improved SRW conditions in IL offset a small decline in OH. Winter wheat crops are set to enter dormancy in fair condition overall compared to most years. Moisture deficits are a concern in some areas, but it will be spring weather conditions that most determine ultimate yields and quality.

China May Cancel Some Bean Purchases

  • Reuters reported that some Chinese importers and processors are preparing to cancel US purchases made for December and January shipment.
  • Smaller private soy importers who did not set the futures price at time of purchase are likely most affected.
  • China soybean imports from all destinations for October were a record large 8.7 million tonnes.
  • Meal inventories are climbing as nearby demand has been covered.
  • Crush margins in China have turned negative after several months of positive returns.
  • Basis for export from the US has dropped over 30% indicating less interest for new purchases.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: There has yet to be any confirmation that US soybean shipments have been cancelled. However, if cancellations were to occur, the volume is likely to be small especially compared to the record amount of purchases made. It’s also a bit early for this type of activity as cancellations usually don’t take place until South American supplies are better defined. It is not a surprise that new buying has slowed as China digests purchases made earlier, which could see prices correct in the near term.

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