The USDA released its March World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report Tuesday morning.
WHEAT: The supply and demand outlook for 2020/21 U.S. wheat is mostly unchanged this month but there are offsetting by-class changes to exports and imports. White wheat exports are raised on continued strong sales and shipments to China and South Korea. Conversely, Hard Red Winter exports are lowered as commitments to several Western Hemisphere markets are below a year ago. The season-average farm price is unchanged at $5.00 per bushel.
The 2020/21 global wheat outlook is for larger supplies, increased consumption, higher exports, and reduced stocks this month. Supplies are raised 3.5 million tons to 1,077.1 million. Global production is increased to a record 776.8 million tons, mainly on higher Australia production on the latest ABARES estimate. Australia’s production is raised to a record 33.0 million tons, surpassing the previous 2016/17 record of 31.8 million. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 6.6 million tons to 775.9 million, mostly on higher feed and residual use for China. Auction sales of China’s old-crop wheat stocks were large in January and February as its domestic corn prices remain at a premium to wheat. This is expected to further heighten China’s 2020/21 wheat feed and residual use, raised 5.0 million tons to a record 35.0 million.
Projected 2020/21 global trade is raised 2.9 million tons to a record 197.7 million, mostly on higher exports by Australia and Canada. Australia’s exports are raised on greater exportable supplies while Canada’s exports are increased on a continued strong pace. The largest import changes this month are for China and Pakistan, where imports are raised to 10.5 million and 3.4 million tons, respectively, on a continued robust pace. Projected 2020/21 imports for both countries are well above their 2019/20 imports. Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 3.0 million tons to 301.2 million with most of the reduction due to increased consumption for China. However, global stocks are still slightly higher than 2019/20 with China and India holding 50 and 9 percent of the total, respectively.
COARSE GRAINS: This month’s 2020/21 U.S. corn supply and use outlook is unchanged from last month. The projected season-average farm price is unchanged at $4.30 per bushel.
Global coarse grain production for 2020/21 is forecast 5.9 million tons higher to 1,444.8 million. The 2020/21 foreign coarse grain outlook is for larger production, increased trade, and greater ending stocks relative to last month. Foreign corn production is forecast higher with increases for India, South Africa, and Bangladesh that are partly offset by a decline for Mexico. India corn production is higher with increases to both area and yield. South Africa corn production is raised reflecting more favorable yield prospects. World barley production is higher with an increase for Australia.
Corn exports are raised for India, Vietnam, and South Africa. Imports are increased for Vietnam, Bangladesh, and the Philippines. Barley exports are raised for Australia, with higher imports for Saudi Arabia and Algeria. Foreign corn ending stocks for 2020/21 are higher, mostly reflecting increases for India, Vietnam, and Paraguay that are partly offset by reductions for Argentina and Mexico. Global corn ending stocks, at 287.7 million tons, are up 1.1 million from last month.
RICE: The supply and demand outlook is unchanged for 2020/21 U.S. rice this month. The projected 2020/21 all rice season-average farm price is raised $0.20 per cwt to $13.60 with increases in the NASS prices reported to date and price expectations for the remainder of the marketing year. Projected prices for both long-grain and Other States medium- and short-grain are both raised this month to $12.40 and $12.80 per cwt, respectively.
The 2020/21 global outlook is for slightly larger supplies, higher consumption, nearly unchanged trade, and reduced stocks. Rice supplies are raised 0.2 million tons to 682.5 million, primarily on higher rice production for India more than offsetting reductions for Bangladesh and Australia. India’s production is raised to a record 121.0 million tons on a record yield. This would be India’s fifth successively larger crop since 2016/17. World 2020/21 consumption is increased 0.5 million tons to a record 504.7 million, primarily on more domestic use by India. World trade is virtually unchanged at 46.3 million tons as higher exports by India at a record 15.5 million are offset on reduced exports by Thailand and Brazil.
Projected 2020/21 world ending stocks are lowered 0.3 million tons to 177.8 million, primarily on Bangladesh and Australia.
OILSEEDS: U.S. soybean supply and use projections for 2020/21 are mostly unchanged this month. With soybean crush and exports projected at 2.20 billion bushels and 2.25 billion bushels, respectively, ending stocks remain at 120 million bushels, down 405 million from last year’s record.
The U.S. season-average soybean price is projected at $11.15 per bushel, unchanged from last month. Although current cash prices are significantly higher, prices received through January have averaged just over $10.00 per bushel, reflecting forward pricing at lower prices. Soybean meal prices are also unchanged at $400.00 per ton. The soybean oil price is forecast at 41.0 cents per pound, up 1 cent from last month.
Global 2020/21 oilseed supply and demand forecasts include higher production, exports, and ending stocks. Global production is raised 0.7 million tons to 595.8 million, with higher soybean and rapeseed partly offset by lower palm kernel, cottonseed, and sunflowerseed.
Soybean production for Brazil is raised 1 million tons to 134 million, reflecting a revision to the 2019/20 crop and this season’s expected yield trend. India’s soybean production is raised 0.2 million tons to 10.7 million based on updated government area data. Conversely, Argentina’s soybean production is reduced 0.5 million tons to 47.5 million due to dry weather conditions over the past month.
Global oilseed exports are raised 0.8 million tons to 194.7 million, mainly on higher rapeseed exports for Ukraine and Australia. Rapeseed imports are increased for the EU-27+UK where the crop is also raised to 17.1 million tons based on updated government data. Global soybean crush is forecast up 1.6 million tons to 323.6 million as higher crush for Argentina and Brazil is partly offset by lower crush for China. Higher crush in Argentina results in higher meal and oil exports. Soybean crush for China is lowered 1 million tons to 98 million based on data to date. Global soybean stocks are slightly higher, with increased stocks for China and Brazil that are mostly offset by lower stocks for Argentina.