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Can Pro Farmer Findings Lift Corn?

Yields are highly variable in the eastern grain belt due to the excessive moisture early on in the season. Can Pro Farmer's yield estimate support corn prices?

Cody Headshot

In the overnight session the grains were mixed with corn unchanged, soybeans down 7 cents and wheat down ¾ of a cent. The U.S. dollar is trading .1% higher this morning and crude oil has slid 8 cents.

The Pro Farmer results from day 1 showed strong South Dakota production with an estimated yield in the state of 165.94 bushels per acre compared to last year’s estimate of 152.71 bushels per acre. The number of Soybean pods was about on par with last year’s levels. In the Eastern leg of the tour yields were not nearly as positive. Pro Farmer estimated Ohio corn yield at 148.37 bushels per acre which was down significantly from the 182.11 bushels last year. The Pro Farmer Ohio yield estimate is also considerably lower than the latest production forecast from the USDA in the August report which pegged Ohio yield at 168 bushels per acre.

Corn conditions rated good to excellent fell 1 percentage point this week to 69 percent which was in line with analyst expectations. Corn development is still in line with the 4 year moving average with 71 percent of the crop in the Dough stage this week. Soybean conditions were better than expected with 63 percent rated good to excellent, unchanged on the week. Traders were looking for at least a percentage point decline in corn and soybeans. Pod setting is 79 percent complete throughout the majority of the crop.

NOPA crush for the month of July was 3 million bushels higher than expectations. Yesterday at 11 AM CST the National Oilseed Processors Association announced that 145.227 million bushels were crushed in July compared to expectations of 141.5 million bushels. Soy oil stocks were above expectations with 1.624 billion pounds in July.

Export inspections beat analyst expectations yesterday for wheat and soybeans. Wheat recorded 560,083 metric tons which was above expectations which ranged from 300,000-425,000 metric tons. Soybeans also beat expectations which ranged from 75,000 to 200,000 metric tons by recording inspections of 375,763 metric tons this week. Corn met expectations with 890,083 metric tons inspected for export this week.

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