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Grains Start the Week with Modest Gains

Crude was higher as was the US Dollar

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Grains started the week with modest gains, but had been higher in Sunday night’s session before retreating into the morning break. In outside markets, crude oil was higher as were equities and the US dollar.

Traders will be focused on Tuesday’s USDA crop report which will show the first official estimates for the new-crop 2016/17 marketing year. Overall, analysts look for new-crop ending stocks to be higher than old-crop carryout for corn and wheat. But soybeans are expected to see ending stocks slip slightly but still come in over 400 MB.

U.S. Midwest outlook remains wet over the next two weeks with a frequent occurrence of rainfall expected across the region. Upper Portions of the Midwest will actually have the best planting with little to no rain from Thursday of this week to Thursday next week. Best Windows for fieldwork in Lower Midwest will be Thursday and Friday in the western Corn Belt, although some showers will impact the central and lower western belt Friday into Monday, May 16 in the eastern Midwest.

Wheat sourced from the United States was offered at the lowest price of $234.50 a tonne c&f free out in a tender from Iraq’s state grains board to buy at least 50,000 tonnes of hard wheat, European traders said on Monday. The tender closed on Sunday. No purchase had yet been made and offers are still being considered, they said. The tender seeks wheat sourced optionally from the United States, Canada or Australia.

Oil prices were higher on Monday, boosted by strong crude imports from China and wildfires in Canada, amid market uncertainty generated by the removal of Saudi Arabia’s long-serving oil minister Ali al-Naimi. To some, the removal of Mr. Naimi is a reaffirmation that 31-year-old Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is the person driving Saudi Arabia’s energy policy. Some officials at the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries said that could mean a deeper politicization of oil-production strategy as the kingdom looks to outmaneuver its rival Iran, which is trying to come back from years of Western sanctions with a surge in output. That could make coordinating oil-production curbs harder.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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