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Big Rally for Soybeans Yesterday

Grains Mixed in the Overnight

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Grains were mixed overnight with limited action in the trade.

Yesterday saw a big rally in soybeans with prices reaching their highest mark in 3 weeks before prices lost ground, closing lower on the day. Yesterday saw some big hits to spot bean basis with losses at 5 to 10 cents at some key river terminals and processors. Basis levels at interior crushing plants are running about 25 cents below normal for this time of year while river terminals are only off about 15 from the historical norm thanks to surging exports and lower barge freight.

In climate news, there is a growing consensus that La Nina may be developing as indicators are showing a shift . The Climate Prediction Center says there is a 70 percent chance that La Niña will develop during the Northern Hemisphere autumn 2016 and there a 55 percent chance it will persist during winter 2016-17. This is up from last month’s forecast of a 40 to 45 percent chance of development. The growing season for corn and soybeans in Argentina and southern Brazil can become unfavorably dry during a La Niña phase, and the US is prone to hotter than normal temperatures in the Midwest.

Crude oil was up sharply eclipsing $51 a barrel for the first time in 3 days. Yesterday, private firm API reported U.S. crude stockpiles fell 3.8 million barrels in the week to Oct. 14, to 467.1 million barrels. EIA official government will be released later this morning.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. Grain Hedge is a Branch of Foremost Trading LLC (NFA ID: 0307930)

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