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Robust Export Pace Continues

Grains drifted lower overnight in lackluster trade while in outside markets crude oil hit its lowest mark since Sept 20. Equities and the US Dollar posted modest gains.

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Expectations continue to mount for a growing soybean production figure in USDA’s November crop report next Wednesday. Yesterday, Informa boosted their soybean production forecast to 52.4 bushels per acre versus USDA in October of 51.4 and Informa’s October forecast of 51.6. However,export pace continues to be robust with 4 of the past 5 weekly sales showing better than 2 MMT of soybean sales. Historically, USDA tends to underestimate exports in the November report versus a report 6 months later in the season in May. In the past 10 years, USDA has been lower in their November forecast in 7 of those years versus the May forecast, and on average they’ve missed the mark by 65 MB.

Overnight Japan bought 153,156 MT of food wheat in a usual tender. Of the total 58,800 MT is from the US while the rest goes to Canada and Australia.

Equity markets continue to be defensive ahead of the US election on Tuesday. With the polls tightening investors remain cautious about the outcome and potential implications of each candidate. This morning US jobless numbers were a bit disappointing as new jobs grew 161,000 but were below expectations of 175,000 and last month’s reading of 191,000.

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