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Kansas Crop Tour Projections

Grains were Mixed in the Overnight

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Grains were mixed overnight with wheat and corn trying to reverse yesterday’s sharp sell-off while soybeans were in negative territory.

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On Thursday, the KS crop tour pegged the state’s crop at 281 MB, off from 467 MB last year but above the 250 MB which some analysts thought the crop could succumb to if the damage was severe enough. In Oklahoma, no crop tour was done but a private grain firm pegged the crop there at 100 MB off from 137 MB last year.

With these two states accounting for 25% of the US wheat production, and early projections pointing to a 37% loss in production, this sets the stage for next week’s USDA all wheat production forecast for 2017/18, the first of the year. An 1,800 to 1,900 MB crop seems reasonable based on lower acreage and normal, to slightly below normal yield potential. This would suggest new-crop stocks could approach 700 to 800 MB in USDA’s first Supply and Demand report of the year, to be released next week, and off of the 1.1 billion bushel carry-out currently.

Overnight, farm office France AgriMer said 74 percent of soft wheat crops were in good or excellent condition as of May 1, compared with 78 percent a week earlier and marking a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Dry weather in the past month has raised concern about low moisture levels in France after a very dry winter, although rain has returned to much of France this week.

China sold 1.82 MMT of corn in a reserve auction overnight. This came in higher than expected suggesting that traders were bullish about corn prices going forward and feed producers were tight on inventories.

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