Headlines
Grains extend rebound in the overnight. Soybean export sales beat expectations. Slow planting progress expected to continue in Delta/Deep south.
Weather
Plains wheat remains dry in western KS, southeastern CO, western OK and northwestern TX. Southeastern Plains is forecast to receive moisture in the 6-10 day outlook. The Delta is expected to continue receiving moisture in the 6-10 day outlook which is expected to continue slowing planting progress.
Argentina
Showers and thunderstorms are expected today and into the weekend in central and southern production regions of Argentina. More showers are expected to start in southern Argentina and move north from Monday to Wednesday.
Brazil
China’s tariff announcement yesterday drove the Brazilian soybean premium 37% higher after already being at record levels during harvest. Brazil soybean harvest is 72% complete up from 65% last week. This is on par with the average harvest pace of 73% at this time. Brazil harvest of 1st crop corn is 60% complete, up 9% from last week and on par with the average harvest pace of 58%.
Ethanol
Ethanol production was mostly unchanged this week at 1.038 million barrels per day vs LW production of 1.039 mbpd. Production was 1.9 percent ahead of last year during the same week. Production needs to maintain 2.5 percent above last year to meet the USDA’s expectations. If production holds steady around these levels and doesn’t dip during the April May time period, ethanol production has a chance to get back on track to meet USDA’s corn used for ethanol estimates. Ethanol stocks slipped lower last week to 942 million gallons from 957 million gallons the previous week. Stocks are now below last years levels by 54 million gallons
Export Sales
Corn and wheat missed analyst expectations, but soybean sales soared. Corn sales were down 34% from LW and down 50% from the four week average. Wheat sales were down 69 percent from LW and 63% from the four week average. Soybean sales increased from last week with strong sales to unknown destinations and 137,400 MT sold to China.
|
Actual |
Estimated |
|
|
Wheat |
109 |
200-500 |
|
Corn |
898 |
1,000-1,300 |
|
Soybeans |
1,133 |
600-900 |
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