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Markets Mostly Steady After Robust Planting Progress Reported

Planting progress well ahead of average for corn and beans

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Planting Progress Well Ahead of Average for Corn and Beans

  • Corn planting was 51% complete vs 48% expected, 27% last week, 21% last year, and 39% average.
  • Soybean planting was 23% complete vs 21% expected, 8% last week, 5% last year, and 11% average.
  • Spring wheat planting was 29% complete vs 30% expected, 14% last week, 19% last year, and 43% average.
  • Cotton planting was 18% complete, 13% last week, 16% last year, and 17% average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Excellent corn planting progress was made across the central Corn Belt with Iowa notably advancing to 78% completion. The western Corn Belt usually has about 10% of intended bean acres planted at this time, but producers made great strides last week with Iowa 46% done and Nebraska finishing 32%. Minnesota and North Dakota are about 1-2 weeks behind average planting spring wheat, while cotton sowing continues on pace. The weather forecast for the Midwest should allow for another week of strong progress.

Corn Exports Are Strong While Beans and Wheat Lag

  • Corn exports for the week ended 4/30/20 were better than expected at 47.9 million bushels.
  • Exports of corn need to average approximately 40 million bushels per week to meet USDA’s 1,725 million bushel projection for 2019/20.
  • Soybean exports last week were only 11.7 million bushels, down from 20.6 million last week and 22.2 million last year.
  • Export inspections for beans were well below the 27 million bushels that will be needed each week to meet USDA’s marketing-year forecast.
  • Wheat shipments of 19.7 million bushels were about as expected, but well below the pace needed to meet USDA’s last projection.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: While China has made some recent purchases, soybean exports continue to disappoint. There was hope that China would secure larger amounts of old crop beans which has not been realized. Without greater buying, the USDA’s 2019/20 export projection of 1,775 million bushels is in danger of not being met.

The risk of trading futures, hedging, and speculating can be substantial. FBN BR LLC (NFA ID: 0508695)

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