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Overnight Gains In Ag Markets

Brazil crop update; EU grain harvest resumes

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Brazil Crop Update

  • The safrinha corn crop harvest is at 24% complete and remains behind the average of 39%.

  • IMEA reported harvest progress in Mato Grosso at 52% up from 35% last week, but below the average of 76%.

  • Producer selling was reported at 80%, and is only slightly higher than 72% reported back in April.

  • In Parana, harvest was reported at 4% complete versus 3% last week and behind 8% last year.

  • The crop was rated 54% good to excellent, down from 58% last week.

  • Brazil’s export shipping lineup for corn was reported at 2.7 million tonnes, up from 2.5 million last week, but lower than the 5.9 million last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Conditions in Brazil have slipped as the weather has been dry and cold. There has been almost no rain across Mato Grosso in July and harvest pace there has sped up. The slower movement is to be expected due to the uncertainty around crop size and also the rise in the Brazilian real.


EU Grain Harvest Resumes

  • Warm, dry conditions are promoting better harvest progress, but may have come too late to prevent some damage to crop quality, especially in wheat.

  • Record rainfall, which caused floods last week in Germany and Belgium, is not expected to have cut yields significantly.

  • Estimates of wheat crop losses have ranged between 150,000 to 200,000 tonnes 23 million tonnes harvested last year.

  • Reports of sprouting grains and disease-darkened crops due to over-wet conditions have increased quality concerns.

  • Good yields are seen for winter barley along with reasonable quality, except for some weakness in test weights, as harvest winds down.

  • Rapeseed could be a positive surprise as the yields reported so far have been better than expected.

  • In Poland, harvest is also advancing with the drier weather, as last week's rain was less disruptive than in other regions.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Despite the excess rainfall and flooding, European crops remain in better condition than spring wheat and canola in North America, which have been affected by drought. Grain quality will remain as the largest concern with more rain in the forecast after this weekend.

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