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CBOT Prices Start Higher, but Lack Direction

Tropical Storm Nicholas poses some threat to harvest in the Delta

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Soybean harvest VIA PIXABAY MAY 2021

US Crop Progress Report as of September 12

  • The Crop Progress Report showed corn conditions falling slightly with a one point drop in the G/E rating, but with harvest starting, changes in conditions are not likely to have a great impact on yields.

  • 37% of the corn crop is now mature versus 31% average; corn harvest has begun with 4% of the crop now in the bins.

  • Soybean conditions were marginally raised, though the good/excellent rating had no change.

  • 38% of the bean crop is dropping leaves versus 29% average; the report will begin reporting soybean harvest next week.

  • Spring wheat harvest is now complete; winter wheat is now 12% planted, ahead of the 8% average.

  • Sorghum harvest is 21% done, behind the average of 25%.

  • The cotton crop rating was 64% good to excellent compared to 61% previously, with 36% of bolls opening, and harvest is just 5% complete.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Harvest for corn has begun, and soybeans started in the south. Tropical Storm Nicholas poses some threat to harvest in the Delta, but models suggest only about one percent of national acreage is at risk of damage. Elsewhere, weather will be conducive to harvesting, and the forecasted heat and dryness will push crop maturity.


Brazil’s Farmers Sell More Corn as Demand Rises

  • Agribusiness consultant Safras & Mercado estimated that Brazil has sold 70.1% of its second corn crop.

  • This is up from 62.6% at this same time last year.

  • Planting delays, drought, and an ill-timed frost drastically cut Brazil’s total corn production; internal prices rose and Brazil’s exports fell.

  • Brazil’s second corn crop represents 70% of the country’s yearly production and is estimated at 55.7 million tonnes; harvest of it is nearly finished.

  • Meanwhile, Brazil’s new corn crop has finished planting in 16.7% of its expected area.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazil experienced a rough second corn crop this year, and farmers there are understandably taking advantage of the higher prices. In the latest WASDE, the USDA cut Brazil’s old crop production by one million tonnes, in line with market expectations. This helped raise expected U.S. exports by 75 million bushels. While the USDA did not cut new crop production for Brazil (which is being planted now), weather risks remain a real possibility.

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