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Presidential race insights and Senate elections to watch

Senate races in states like Montana and Ohio are critical for determining Congressional control.

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Key factors will influence the outcome of the approaching election, with financial power and voter demographics taking center stage. These influential factors were examined in a webinar, held by the National Grain and Feed Association (NGFA), featuring insights from The Russell Group, into the upcoming Presidential and Senate races.

Randy Russell, president of The Russell Group, said Vice President Kamala Harris’s campaign holds a significant cash advantage, having raised $678 million by August compared to President Donald Trump’s $310 million. This advantage in cash-on-hand has led to a greater number of ads from Harris both on social media and television.

Pivotal voting blocs will also drive the election. The key African American vote has gone to Democratic presidential candidates in recent history; however, Russell said African American males have moved the polls in a different direction.

“Joe Biden got 89% of the African American vote in 2020, Trump got about 9%, and the rest were other candidates,” Russell said. “Now in most of the polls we've looked at, Harris is at about 82% on African American votes and Trump is up to 12%. Most of that is explained by African American males, who have increased their support for Trump.”

Another key constituency is the Hispanic vote, particularly in the swing states. Polls at the end of September showed Harris had about 59% of the Hispanic vote, while Trump had about 31%, mirroring the results of Trump and President Joe Biden in 2020.

For the suburban vote, the two candidates are nearly tied. But there is a sharp gender divide. Harris led suburban women by nearly 20 points at the end of September, while Trump held the lead among suburban men.

Rural voters have favored Trump in past elections and the trend's continuing in 2024. Trump earned 59% of the rural vote in 2016 against Hillary Clinton and 65% of the rural vote against Biden in 2020.

“Harris is making a major effort to try to get that Trump support number down,” Russell said. “Trump is trying to drive that number up because the rural vote could end up being critically important in North Carolina, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Michigan.”

While analyzing the polls may provide some insights into voters' opinions, Russell said polling accuracy remains uncertain. 

Polling uncertainty and the key battleground

Questions persist about whether pollsters have sufficiently adjusted their methods to capture Trump’s voter base, which was underrepresented in both the 2016 and 2020 elections, Russell noted. Clinton was picked to win the national vote by four percentage points but ultimately won it by just two points. Trump was also defeated by Biden by a narrower margin than the polls predicted. On election night, Russell said Pennsylvania will be the key state to watch.

“I think out of the seven battleground states, whoever wins Pennsylvania and those 19 electoral votes will be elected the next president — and the race is razor  thin," Russell said. "Different polls show one or the other ahead, but I think that is the key battleground state.”

With a tight race and complex dynamics, Russell said the election results may potentially not be known for days after November 5, leaving the country waiting on the presidential outcome or which party has Congressional control.

U.S. Senate races insights

The outcome of the upcoming Senate races is not any clearer or more predictable than the White House, said Andrew Harker, principal, The Russell Group. The Senate plays a vital role in passing laws and bears considerable legislative power as one-half of Congress.

The Senate has the power to confirm or reject appointments made by the incoming administration and significantly influences the composition and effectiveness of the executive branch.

As it stands, Democrats hold the majority over Republicans with a one-seat advantage in the Senate, so Republicans must pick up two seats to take the majority. Some close races in the Senate mirror the close races for the White House in the same key battleground states.

"The three most ‘endangered’ seats for Democrats in the Senate are Montana, Ohio and West Virginia,” said Harker. “These three states have been targeted the most by Republicans."

In Montana, Senator Jon Tester (D) is facing a tough challenge, with Tim Sheehy (R) currently leading. In Ohio, Senator Sherrod Brown (D) is in a close race against Bernie Moreno (R), and West Virginia is considered likely to flip Republican with Sen. Joe Manchin not running.

President Trump carried all three states in 2016 and 2020, with polls indicating he’ll carry them in November.

Montana's Sen. Tester is running for his fourth term. While the Democrat has remained popular, he won both his last two campaigns by just four points, and in 2020, Trump won Montana by 16 points. Meanwhile, Tester’s Republican challenger Tim Sheehy has been gaining ground.

“To put in perspective how important Montana is for both parties, we’ve already seen a combined $240 million spent on this one Senate election alone, and that is for a state with 750,000 voters,” Harker said. “That's about $3,200 per vote — just an insane amount of money going into the state of Montana. But it shows you how close the margins are. If Montana flips and Republicans hold the seats that they currently have, and they do win West Virginia, then they've got the majority.”

Ohio, another critical state for Senate races, broke the $200-million-mark in campaign spending in June. Sen. Brown (D), who serves on the Agriculture Committee, is also running for a fourth term, and won his last two elections by single-digit leads.

Recent polls show Moreno, his Republican challenger, leading by a few points. Trump is also up by nine points in Ohio, so it will be difficult for Sen. Brown to overcome an electorate that votes heavily for Trump, Harker said.

“Sen. Brown has done it before, but against different Republicans on the ticket, so we'll have to wait and see,” Harker said. 

Harker said other states have important races, like Pennsylvania and Wisconsin, where Democratic senators Bob Casey and Tammy Baldwin, respectively, have seen their leads narrow in the polls since summer.

Nevada is somewhat of an outlier, Harker said. It is a competitive seat, in which the Democratic incumbent Sen. Jacky Rosen has maintained strength in the polls with a consistent 10-point lead by the end of September. Republican challenger Sam Brown, to date, has not seen a narrowing in the polls.

“However, that is always a close race and one President Trump is going to try to make a competitive race,” Harker said. “But as the races stand now, Republicans are in a position to have a real shot at taking the Senate.”

Election surprises unlikely in Texas and Florida

While uncertainty remains for several key races, Harker said Texas and Florida are easier to predict.

“People have asked if Texas and Florida are really in play for Democrats to take,” he said. “For a historical perspective on Texas, it has been a solidly Republican state, sending Republicans to the Senate every election since 1990 and their governors have been Republican since 1994. Texas has not voted to put a Democrat in the White House since 1976, and Trump is on track to win Texas. It's hard to overcome the momentum Trump has down there for a Congressman who is trying to unseat Sen. Ted Cruz. I believe Texas is not in play at this point.”

Similarly in Florida, the current Republican Sen. Rick Scott defeated the incumbent Bill Nelson in 2018 in a very close race. It was the most expensive Senate race at the time, with Scott winning by about 10,000 votes.

“Again, I think Trump's momentum in Florida, and his very likelihood of carrying the state, ultimately helps carry Rick Scott over the finish line in this Senate race,” Harker said.

The Senate’s crucial role

The outcome of these Senate races will be crucial in decisions about political appointments in the future. The next administration will have to clear 4,000 political appointments, 1,200 of which must go through the Senate.

"The Senate is a big deal, not just for the control of the Congress from a legislative perspective, but also for working with the next administration," Harker said.

Harker said a potential Harris administration facing an opposition-controlled Senate could pose challenges for clearing appointees. It’s a relatively unusual situation in recent history, Harker said.

"Joe Biden, Donald Trump, Barack Obama and Bill Clinton all entered their first terms with a House and Senate led by their respective parties, so George W. Bush was the last president who had to clear political appointees by a Senate led by the opposite party."

The importance of Senate control, not only for legislative purposes but also for the smooth functioning of the executive branch, underscores why Senate races are as closely watched as the Presidential race and the significance of the upcoming election. 

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