Jan 15, 2021

Weekly Export Sales Rebound

If sales continue at the current pace, prices will likely need to move higher

Weekly Export Sales Rebound

  • Soybean sales came in at an 8-week high of 33.4 million bushels, up sharply from the previous week's sales of only 1.3 million bushels.
  • Sales to China were 21.1 million bushels, which included switches of 9.7 million from unknown and cancellations of 2.9 million.
  • Total commitments of 2,046 million bushels are up 83% from last year's 1,118 million, and need to average just 6 million bushels/week to reach the USDA's 2,230 million bushel export projection
  • Corn sales of 56.6 million bushels were above market expectations and were a 4-week high.
  • Total commitments of 1,787 million bushels are up 135% from last year, needing to average 2 million bushels per week to reach the USDA's lowered export projection of 2,550 million bushels.
  • Wheat sales were below market expectations at an 8-week low of 8.2 million bushels.
  • Upland cotton sales of 326,000 running bales were up noticeably from the previous week due primarily to China purchasing 151,200 running bales.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The USDA lowered its soybean export forecast in Tuesday’s report, but there has not been a sign that demand is decreasing. China has not returned for significant amounts of corn yet, but may be awaiting new quotas. If sales continue at the current pace, prices will likely need to move higher to ration that demand.


Argentina Weekly Crop Update

  • Soybeans were rated 18% good to excellent as of January 13.
  • Conditions were down from 27% the previous week and from 54% last year.
  • About 2% of the crop is beginning to pod, which is below the average level at 15% and below last year at 12%.
  • Corn conditions improved for the week with 19% of the crop rated good to excellent, up from 12% last week but well below last year’s 55%.
  • About 30% of the corn crop is silking, which is near the average at 36%
  • The wheat crop is 100% harvested.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: There are some rains in the forecast for Argentina but overall the crops remain rated well below last year’s levels, keeping production risk present. However, any upcoming moisture would be timely given the reproductive phases the crops are entering.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014