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Jul 28, 2021

U.S. Spring Wheat Tour Highlights

Poor fields and yields found with harvest in its early stages

U.S. Spring Wheat Tour Highlights: Day 1

  • The tour kicked off in southern and east central North Dakota.

  • Scouts noted that yields were well below average thanks to the ongoing drought that part of the US is facing.

  • From 100 fields on day 1, the average yield came in at 29.5 bushels per acre versus the 2019 yield at 45.6 and the average at 43.3.

  • Conditions for the US overall are the poorest since the 1988 crop.

  • On Wednesday, the tour extends into northern areas and on Thursday the tour expands to northeastern fields.

  • The Wheat Quality Council will release a state yield forecast Thursday.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The tour found generally what was expected - poor fields and yields that are well below average. With harvest in early stages, rainfall now would not be viewed as helpful to the crop. We are expecting a poor spring wheat crop overall for the US and Canada. Minneapolis futures are expected to rebound from recent weakness.


EU Crop Report

  • The EU crop monitor, MARS, reported that, although excessive rainfall hampered the harvest of winter crops, it had limited impact on yields.

  • There was some concern that too-wet conditions in some regions could reduce yield quality.

  • The agency raised its forecast of the average EU soft wheat yield to 6.05 tonnes per hectare from 6.01 tonnes in June.

  • That would be 6.3% above the average EU soft wheat yield of the past five years, and 6.1% above last year.

  • MARS raised the projected EU corn yield to 7.88 tonnes per hectare from 7.84 tonnes last month, up 1.7% on the average.

  • The barley yield was reduced slightly to 4.96 tonnes per hectare from the 4.97 tonnes projected in June, which is still 4% above average.

  • The forecast for rapeseed yield was cut to 3.19 tonnes per hectare from 3.23 tonnes last month, still 4.8% above the five-year average.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Record rainfall in several western European countries this month caused deadly floods and raised concern over damage to crops, but for now it appears quality issues are a greater worry. Quality may become more of a problem as world stocks of milling quality wheat become tighter due to production cuts for spring wheat in the US northern Plains and Canadian Prairies.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
close: 12.34

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391