Nov 03, 2021

Wheat Falls on Profit Taking

Ukraine’s winter wheat sowing nearing completion, exports strong

China Urges Families to Stockpile Food, Daily Necessities

  • The Chinese government issued a directive late Monday telling families to stockpile food and other daily necessities in case of emergencies.

  • The move triggered some panic buying by the public and speculations as to the cause of the directive.

  • State media was forced to respond to soothe fears, explaining the purpose was to ensure citizens were not caught off guard if there was a lockdown.

  • Covid-19 has seen new outbreaks recently, and there are also concerns over extreme winter weather and surges in vegetable prices.

  • However, there were speculations of the cause being escalating tensions between Taiwan and the mainland.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: While China routinely issues such notices, this one led to a somewhat heightened response. Covid-19 has seen an uptick in the country, and there are concerns over extreme rains cutting supplies of vegetables and corn products, especially ahead of the Lunar New Year holiday in early February. The directive was not just focused on families, as the government also encouraged ag companies to secure long-term supply agreements and urged local authorities to ensure food supplies for the winter.


Ukraine’s Winter Wheat Sowing Nearing Completion, Exports Strong

  • The country reported that winter wheat plantings were 91% complete as of November 1.

  • That means that 6.1 million hectares of the crop are in the ground with a total area seen at 6.66 million.

  • Winter wheat area accounts for about 95% of Ukraine’s total wheat area with spring wheat production small relative to winter wheat.

  • In 2021, 6.105 million hectares of winter wheat had been sown.

  • And this year’s grain harvest hit a record of about 80 million tonnes.

  • Since July, Ukraine has exported 12.4 million tonnes of wheat, which is a record to date for that time frame.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: It is not too surprising that winter wheat area is up versus a year ago given the price environment, but we wonder if some rapeseed area was given up to plant more wheat. Regardless, Ukrainian producers are responding to higher winter wheat prices. It is too early to set our sights on production totals, but the foundation is laid for the exporter to have a larger crop. Its neighbor Russia is struggling to plant all of its intended winter wheat area with Black Sea situation not viewed as bearish for prices.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Nov, 28

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.5712
high: 5.7406
low: 5.5262
close: 5.7276

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.1595
high: 12.1807
low: 12.0432
close: 12.166

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.331
high: 8.4769
low: 8.226
close: 8.444

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.7213
high: 7.8263
low: 7.6213
close: 7.7716