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Apr 28, 2021

U.S. Imports Soy From Brazil

Brazil’s record bean crop is making its way into the world market

U.S. Imports Soy From Brazil

  • The first shipment of 31,500 tonnes of soybeans to the U.S. is on the loading schedule at a northern port in Brazil.

  • Based on the estimated load date, the shipment should arrive at the U.S. east coast in late May or early June.

  • Increasing US bean bids and weaker Brazilian offers could keep this export flow moving.

  • U.S. imports for the first half of the season at 5.4 million bushels are very low, as the USDA is currently projecting imports of 35 million.

  • The soybean export lineup in Brazil to all destinations is 12.2 million tonnes vs 11.2 million last year.

  • Shipments for April are at 13.2 million tonnes, and will likely exceed last year’s record of 14.3 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazil’s record bean crop is making its way into the world market. The U.S. will need large imports from South America as shipments from Canada will be limited for the balance of the crop year. The tight stocks in the U.S. have escalated the need for higher prices and stronger cash markets to move supplies and/or limit demand for soybeans.

FBN
FBN

Attaché Report for Ukraine

  • Production and export totals generally are forecast to be above last year on the assumption that weather will be near normal this growing season.

  • Wheat production is seen at 26.8 million tonnes, up 4% versus last year.

  • Wheat exports are seen at 18.5 million tonnes versus this marketing year’s export expectations at a slim 15.5 million tonnes.

  • Barley production is seen at 8.2 million tonnes and essentially flat; exports are forecast at 4.1 million tonnes, or nearly in line with 2020/21 exports.

  • Corn production is forecast at 33.5 million tonnes versus the agency’s 2020 harvest estimate at 28.1 million tonnes.

  • With a larger crop, exports are seen expanding 3.6 million tonnes to 27.6 million though that still would be less than exports in 2019/20.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Rebounds in wheat and corn production are expected for now on the assumption that weather will be more favorable than last year’s dryness. That means we will have more competition on the feed grain side and that Ukraine will recover some of its market share on both the wheat and corn export markets.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525