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Jun 08, 2021

Prices Higher as Crop Ratings Slip

U.S. weekly crop progress recap; China's May soybean imports rise

U.S. Weekly Crop Progress Recap, as of June 6

  • Corn conditions slipped to 72% good to excellent; that was down four points from the previous week and marginally lower than last year.

  • Initial soybean conditions came in at 67% good to excellent versus 72% last year. Plantings were 90% complete.

  • Winter wheat harvest clocked in at 2% complete versus 6% last year and the 7% average, but it's still early. 85% of the crop is heading.

  • Spring wheat conditions fell five points to 38% good to excellent; last year, the rating was 82% good to excellent for this week.

  • Oat and barley conditions are below year-ago levels as well.

  • Much of the western Corn Belt into the PNW needs more rain.

  • Cotton planting at 71% complete continues to lag the average pace, while crop ratings improved 3 points to 46% good to excellent.

FBN’s Take On What It Means : The report was much as expected - lower conditions versus last week for many crops. The weather forecast models are not in agreement on what is coming in the next few days. North Dakota needs moisture but several other states are in need too. We caution that it is early in the season and weather can change, but we are not off to a great growing season.


China's May Soybean Imports Rise

  • China's soybean imports increased by 29% in May from the previous month.

  • Imports were 9.61 million tonnes in May, up from 7.45 million tonnes in April.

  • May's imports were also up slightly from 9.38 million tonnes in the same month last year.

  • In the first five months of this year total soy imports have been 38.23 million tonnes, up 12.8% from the same period last year.

  • Soybean arrivals in the next two months are expected to exceed 10 million tonnes, adding to already hefty stocks.

  • Falling pig prices and rising feed costs are expected to deter some producers from restocking herds.

  • Soy crush margins in China are currently negative as meal demand stays softer than expected.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: The figures were within market expectations as imports seasonally tend to be larger from May to July, and some delayed cargoes are still in transit. Though deferred purchases have dipped recently, we expect soy demand will continue to be robust in the long-term as China's livestock herds expand.

FBN Market Advisory services are offered by FBN BR LLC, dba FBN Brokerage, FBN BR and FBN Market Advisory (NFA ID: 0508695)

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 03

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.6309
high: 5.6797
low: 5.6159
close: 5.6309

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.9852
high: 12.1581
low: 11.9477
close: 12.111

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.119
high: 8.2535
low: 8.054
close: 8.2002

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.5939
high: 7.7096
low: 7.5239
close: 7.6525