Nov 15, 2021

Mexico’s 2022 Corn Imports Forecasted at 17.86M Tonnes

Mexico would like to decrease its dependence on the U.S. due to GMO prevalence

Mexico’s 2022 Corn Imports Forecasted at 17.86 Million Tonnes

  • In its first estimate for the crop year, consultancy GCMA expects Mexico to import 17.86 million tonnes of corn in 2022.

  • This would be a 1.7% increase from its 2021 import forecast of 17.56 MMT.

  • GCMA sees production rising 2.5% to reach 28.26 MMT in 2022.

  • Domestic consumption would also rise 2.5% year-over-year, with most of the increased demand coming from the poultry industry.

  • Mexico has imported 13.07 MMT through the first nine months of this year, 6.9% higher than at the same point last year; 11.82 MMT of corn has come from the US.

  • The USDA sees 2021 Mexican imports at 17 MMT.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Mexico is the number two buyer of US corn, and purchases to date this year have been hotter than normal - 9.5% higher than at the same point last year. Mexico has been sending messages it would like to decrease its dependence on the U.S. due to the prevalence of GMOs here, and the country has developed plans to grow enough yellow corn to meet its demands by 2024. However, the growing imports year-over-year suggests otherwise.


Russia Raises Grain Export Taxes

  • Russia on Friday raised grain export taxes on wheat, barley, and corn.

  • The wheat tax rose $7.20/tonne, barley by $11.20/tonne, and corn by $12.80/tonne.

  • While expected, the increases come after two weeks of stability.

  • The duties are calculated from a formula, whereby exporters pay 70% of the difference between a floor price and a floating index price calculated by a panel of industry experts.

  • The increases come on the heels of news that Russia is looking to revise the formula to further raise the tax.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Russia, which has been grappling with domestic food inflation, is likely to raise the tax further in coming weeks. The current floating index price is still about $20/tonne lower than physical spot loading cash FOB offer. If Russia goes through with the formula change, the tax would be even higher. Russia, which is seeing food inflation at 6-7%, is looking for ways to take itself out of the world wheat market and keep supplies at home. It is also considering lengthening a planned export quota in 2022.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Nov, 28

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.5712
high: 5.7406
low: 5.5262
close: 5.7276

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.1595
high: 12.1807
low: 12.0432
close: 12.166

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.331
high: 8.4769
low: 8.226
close: 8.444

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.7213
high: 7.8263
low: 7.6213
close: 7.7716