Jan 05, 2021

USDA Reports Record Oilseed Crushing

U.S. domestic soybean soybean usage continues to run at a record pace

Argentina Weather Forecast

  • Rain fell in many areas during the past week, but amounts were often less than 0.50 inch.
  • The best rain was in southern Buenos Aires where 0.6 to 0.9 inch of rain was noted with several areas getting over 1.00 inch.
  • A large part of Argentina is still reporting short to very short topsoil and subsoil moisture.
  • The forecast for this week features spotty showers, leaving central crop areas without significant rainfall.
  • Temperatures are expected to be normal to above normal, leading to a steady rate of evaporation.
  • Many of the recent computer forecast model runs have featured above normal precipitation next week.
  • The absence of high pressure ridging may allow for more rain to move across the country.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Any rainfall will be beneficial for crop development and production, but the need for widespread rain continues to grow. The current forecast offers some relief in western Argentina this week and across a larger part of the country next week. Coverage and amounts will be the key, as production forecasts remain at risk of being cut.


USDA Reports Record Oilseed Crushing

  • Soybean crush in November was 191 million bushels, down from 196.6 million in October and below the expected 192.1 million bushels.
  • The amount was a record high for the month, and significantly higher than the 174.6 million bushels crushed in November last year.
  • Crush for the first quarter of the marketing year was 559 million bushels, up 35 million bushels from last year.
  • The rise has already exceeded the USDA's projected annual increase of 30 million bushels to 2.195 billion bushels from 2.165 billion last year.
  • Soybean oil production in November was 2.207 billion pounds compared to 2.282 billion in October and 2.000 billion last year.
  • November ending soybean oil stocks were higher than expected at 2.118 billion pounds, up from 1.964 billion in October and 1.880 billion last year.
  • Implied domestic soybean oil usage in November was up almost 13% from last year and followed October's 6.5% increase.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: U.S. domestic soybean soybean usage continues to run at a record pace, and crush would need to be below last year for the next three quarters to not be over the current USDA forecast for the year. If usage continues anywhere near the current pace, the projection will need to be increased and ending stocks will be even tighter than expected. It appears the market’s function to limit demand with higher prices has not kicked in yet.

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Kevin McNew

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