Sep 21, 2021

Markets Wait for Yield and Export News

Corn and soybean harvests are now well underway across the country

U.S. Crop Progress Report as of September 19

  • The US Crop Progress Report showed corn harvest has continued with 10% now done, slightly ahead of average and last year’s pace.

  • The corn crop is now 57% mature versus the average of 47%.

  • The first soybean harvest numbers were reported with 6% out of the fields, in line with the five-year average.

  • 58% of soybeans are dropping leaves versus the 48% average.

  • Corn and soybean conditions were slightly better for both, with each gaining one point in their G/E ratings. Ratings continue to be less important as harvest proceeds.

  • Winter wheat plantings are also ahead of average, 21% versus 18%.

  • Sorghum harvest is 25% done, slightly behind the average of 28%.

  • The cotton harvest is slightly behind average, 9% versus 11%, and 48% of the crop have bolls opening.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn and soybean harvests are now well underway across the country. Except for some scattered spots, the forecast is largely warm and dry and should encourage a quick harvest. There are some early reports of yields not hitting expectations, and disease pressures have been noted, but there isn’t enough data to support a trend yet.


Brazil Soybean Planting Off to Slow Start

  • AgRural reports that Brazilian farmers have planted 0.1% of their projected soybean area through the end of last week.

  • Most of the planting took place in the states of Parana and Mato Grosso.

  • Heat and low humidity were cited as the primary concerns for the tepid start.

  • If conditions are suboptimal, the farmers may risk having to replant, which would be particularly undesirable this year when there has been a sharp increase in production costs.

  • On the other hand, corn growers have finished planting 22% of the first corn crop, which represents about 30% of Brazil’s production.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Brazil’s soybean crop is projected to come in at 141.2 million tonnes for the 2021/22 crop, 3.9% higher than last year’s strong output. Rising input prices are encouraging farmers to hold off planting until more optimal conditions occur. Light rains might bring patchy relief in the coming week, but the best chances for consistent rains are still 2-4 weeks out.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Oct, 24

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.1374
high: 5.1867
low: 5.1249
close: 5.1668

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 11.801
high: 11.861
low: 11.7324
close: 11.7679

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.4043
high: 7.5443
low: 7.3993
close: 7.5365

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 6.9986
high: 7.0999
low: 6.9861
close: 7.0671