Ukraine Grain Exports Lower
- Ukraine's 2020/21 grain exports have fallen 18.6% to 27.57 million tonnes.
- Exporters have sold 12.75 million tonnes of wheat, 10.52 million tonnes of corn and 3.89 million tonnes of barley.
- Ukraine exported a total of 57 million tonnes of grain in the 2019/20 marketing year (July-June).
- The government has said exports could decline to 44.2 million tonnes after total grain production fell to 64.5 million tonnes from 75.1 million previously.
- The economy ministry and agricultural unions will decide on January 25 whether to limit corn exports in the 2020/21 marketing season.
- Corn exports could be limited to 22 million tonnes to avoid a shortage of animal feed.
- Ukraine has already exported 10.5 million tonnes of corn during this marketing year.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: Ukraine may pick up some additional wheat business as countries like Bangladesh look for new suppliers due to the Russian export tax. However, many buyers are already turning to Australia after their record harvest. If a limit on corn exports is enacted it will likely support FOB prices and continue to push business to the US.
Brazil Harvest Slow To Start
- AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean harvest is only 0.4% complete compared to 1.8% harvested last year and an average near 5%.
- Brazil planted a record 38 million hectares, or nearly 94 million acres, of soybeans this season.
- AgRural estimated Brazil's soybean production at 131.7 million tonnes, slightly lower than the USDA forecast of 133 million.
- First crop corn harvest in the Center-South region is 3.4% completed, which is ahead of last year’s 2.5% pace.
- Heavy yield losses for summer corn are being noted in Brazil’s south due to hot/dry conditions earlier in the season.
- Conab has forecast first crop corn production at 23.9 million tonnes and total production at 102.3 million, versus the USDA projection of 109 million.
FBN’s Take On What It Means: After a dry start, which delayed planting, weather in January has been generally beneficial to support soybean crop development and yields. Forecasts for normal rainfall and moderate temperatures for the second half of January will be helpful if they are verified. Most of Brazil’s corn is planted as a second crop after soybeans, and there will be more risk to this crop as delays push maturity into the country’s dryer season.
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