Jan 19, 2021

Ukraine Grain Exports Lower

Markets mixed to start short week

Ukraine Grain Exports Lower

  • Ukraine's 2020/21 grain exports have fallen 18.6% to 27.57 million tonnes.
  • Exporters have sold 12.75 million tonnes of wheat, 10.52 million tonnes of corn and 3.89 million tonnes of barley.
  • Ukraine exported a total of 57 million tonnes of grain in the 2019/20 marketing year (July-June).
  • The government has said exports could decline to 44.2 million tonnes after total grain production fell to 64.5 million tonnes from 75.1 million previously.
  • The economy ministry and agricultural unions will decide on January 25 whether to limit corn exports in the 2020/21 marketing season.
  • Corn exports could be limited to 22 million tonnes to avoid a shortage of animal feed.
  • Ukraine has already exported 10.5 million tonnes of corn during this marketing year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Ukraine may pick up some additional wheat business as countries like Bangladesh look for new suppliers due to the Russian export tax. However, many buyers are already turning to Australia after their record harvest. If a limit on corn exports is enacted it will likely support FOB prices and continue to push business to the US.

FBN

Brazil Harvest Slow To Start

  • AgRural reported Brazil’s soybean harvest is only 0.4% complete compared to 1.8% harvested last year and an average near 5%.
  • Brazil planted a record 38 million hectares, or nearly 94 million acres, of soybeans this season.
  • AgRural estimated Brazil's soybean production at 131.7 million tonnes, slightly lower than the USDA forecast of 133 million.
  • First crop corn harvest in the Center-South region is 3.4% completed, which is ahead of last year’s 2.5% pace.
  • Heavy yield losses for summer corn are being noted in Brazil’s south due to hot/dry conditions earlier in the season.
  • Conab has forecast first crop corn production at 23.9 million tonnes and total production at 102.3 million, versus the USDA projection of 109 million.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: After a dry start, which delayed planting, weather in January has been generally beneficial to support soybean crop development and yields. Forecasts for normal rainfall and moderate temperatures for the second half of January will be helpful if they are verified. Most of Brazil’s corn is planted as a second crop after soybeans, and there will be more risk to this crop as delays push maturity into the country’s dryer season.

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Kevin McNew

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Magazine

Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014