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Jul 23, 2021

Markets Mixed Ahead Of Weekend Weather

The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina’s harvest at 72% complete versus 62% last week and 95% last year

Argentina Crop Conditions

  • The Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported Argentina’s harvest at 72% complete versus 62% last week and 95% last year.

  • The exchange left its crop production forecast unchanged at 48 million tonnes compared to USDA at 48.5 million.

  • Export shipments for July are at 3 million tonnes, and on pace to reach 4.1 versus 4 million last month and 4.5 million last year.

  • BAGE reported Argentina’s wheat seeding progress at 98% complete.

  • Crop condition ratings were down slightly at 57% good to excellent from 59% last week, but still well below the 22% last year.

  • The exchange noted dryness in the north accounted for the lower ratings, and left its production forecast unchanged at 19 million tonnes.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: Argentina’s crops have remained stable. Increased corn production will help Brazil’s shortfall somewhat. Increasing dry conditions are not yet a concern, but warrant attention as wheat markets adjust to losses in other origins.

FBN
FBN

France’s Wheat Crop Trimmed

  • Strategie Grains cut its projection for France's 2021 soft wheat harvest after its recent crop tour.

  • The soft wheat crop is forecast at 37-37.5 million tonnes, down from nearly 38 million previously.

  • In the center of the country, yields were projected to be very good, but lower than expected yields were found in the largest wheat-producing regions in the northeast.

  • Overall quality of the crop is also disappointing as a sharp drop in falling numbers is expected with an average protein level of 11.6%.

  • The crop forecast is in line with the French farm ministry, which projected this year's soft wheat crop at 37.1 million tonnes.

  • The 2021 harvest would still be well above last year, when France produced 29 million tonnes of soft wheat.

FBN’s Take On What It Means For The Farmer: The lower yields might be blamed on the cold snap earlier in the season, while recent excessive rainfall has likely hurt the quality of the crop. There is more rain in forecast for next week which will not be beneficial at this point. Even a small reduction in EU production will make it more difficult to redistribute lost spring wheat export availability from North America to other classes and world exporters.



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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Dec, 04

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open: 5.6684
high: 5.7321
low: 5.6559
close: 5.7046

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.266
high: 12.366
low: 12.2585
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cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.1277
high: 8.243
low: 7.9921
close: 8.0144

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.6225
high: 7.7249
low: 7.4749
close: 7.5391