Oct 26, 2021

Harvest Continues at Rapid Clip

Conditions are behind expectations but ahead of last year

U.S. Crop Progress Report as of October 24

  • The Crop Progress Report showed corn harvest is now 66% in the bins, a 14-point gain on the week, and ahead of the average at 53%.

  • Soybean harvest saw a 13-point gain week-over-week, now at 73% done; average is 70%.

  • Cotton harvest continues to lag a bit; 35% of the crop is harvested, a seven point gain on the week, and six points behind average.

  • Sorghum harvest is at 71%, 11 points ahead of average.

  • Winter wheat plantings are 80% done, in line with average; 55% of the crop has emerged.

  • However, wheat conditions are worse than forecasted with a 46% G/E rating versus 54% expected (41% last year).

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Corn and soybean harvests have another good week of progress, and winter wheat plantings are in line with average. Conditions are behind expectations but ahead of last year. Progress may slow next week on storms across the Midwest.


Morocco to Halt Import Duty on Soft Wheat, Durum

  • The country’s government currently has a 135% import duty on soft wheat.

  • For durum, the import duty is at 170%.

  • Starting November 1, both of these rates will be suspended.

  • This is a plus for Canada’s durum prices more so than for the US but is a positive input overall.

  • Canada is the top durum exporter by far to Morocco.

  • For all wheat, the top exporters to Morocco include France, Canadam Ukraine, Russia, Germany, the US, Argentina, and other EU countries.

  • Morocco has protective measures in place for supporting its domestic soft wheat prices, but with the tight supply situation and rising prices, the country has announced its suspension of duties on wheat imports.

  • Likely, the duties will be reinforced sometime in the spring of 2022, when wheat its harvest is underway or near.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: This is another positive input for wheat prices and durum. While Canada normally would benefit directly from this news, the tight durum situation may not result in a boost to export activity. But it still could be supportive for domestic prices in the US and Canada given the need for more durum to come to the export market. For soft wheat, the US has not had a large presence in the Moroccan market for a couple of years.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Nov, 29

cmdty National Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.5712
high: 5.7406
low: 5.5262
close: 5.7276

cmdty National Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 12.1595
high: 12.1807
low: 12.0432
close: 12.166

cmdty National Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 8.331
high: 8.4769
low: 8.226
close: 8.444

cmdty National Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.7213
high: 7.8263
low: 7.6213
close: 7.7716