Feb 12, 2021

Markets Firm Before Long Weekend

Keeping an eye on South American weather

Argentine Crop Conditions

  • Buenos Aires Grain Exchange reported corn harvest is beginning for some early planted crops in Argentina.
  • Corn conditions were rated 23% good to excellent, down from 24% last week, and well below 62% last year.
  • The corn production forecast was unchanged at 46 million tonnes compared to the USDA at 47.5 million.
  • The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its production estimate to 48.5 million tonnes from 46 million compared to 51 million last year.
  • Soybean conditions improved to 23% good to excellent, compared to 19% last week and 66% last year.
  • 72% of the crop is flowering versus 80% average while 4% of the crop has reached pod fill versus 22% average.
  • BAGE held its soy crop projection steady at 46 million tonnes, compared to 48 million forecast by USDA.
  • The Rosario Grains Exchange raised its production estimate to 49 million tonnes from 47 million, compared to 48.8 million last year.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: Rainfall toward the end of January has improved soybean conditions and stabilized corn conditions over much of Argentina’s central agricultural region, but soil moisture conditions overall declined slightly from the previous week. Although temps are expected below normal, the lack of rainfall in the forecast over the next two weeks remains a concern. The risk of drier weather will likely continue to support corn and soybean prices into the end of the month.


India’s 2021 Wheat Harvest Likely to be Record

  • The latest agricultural attaché report confirmed that wheat plantings hit a record 34.5 million hectares, up from last year’s 33.5 million.
  • The 2020 monsoon provided adequate moisture and irrigation supplies.
  • India’s harvest occurs in March/April, so there still is time for weather to improve or temper yield prospects, but the crop is off to a record potential.
  • India’s current wheat stocks situation is burdensome at 27 million tonnes.
  • The government’s desired stocks level for April is around 7.5 million tonnes.
  • That has raised questions as to whether India will enter as a more prominent exporter in the coming months.
  • Exports for the current crop year are forecast at 1.75 million tonnes, which is light versus other exporters.
  • But, following another record harvest, India could be looking to reduce its stocks total.
  • In fact, the government hinted at boosting exports later in the 2020/21 crop year, which ends March 31 for India.

FBN’s Take On What It Means: So far, we have yet to see India boost its export program, but that could be forthcoming towards the end of calendar year 2021 or start of 2022. Farmer sentiment towards the government is not high right now, so the Indian government could be hesitant before letting a large volume of stocks go. However, there is risk that India enters the export market in the next 10-12 months.

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Kevin McNew

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Marketwatch: Jan, 18

US Corn Price Idx: ZCPAUS.CM

open: 5.7667
high: 5.8486
low: 5.7266
close: 5.8288

US Soybean Price Idx: ZSPAUS.CM

open: 13.366
high: 13.376
low: 13.2328
close: 13.2696

US Hard Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: KEPAUS.CM

open: 7.3061
high: 7.3384
low: 7.2334
close: 7.2454

US Soft Red Winter Wheat Price Idx: ZWPAUS.CM

open: 7.0114
high: 7.0566
low: 6.9566
close: 7.0014